593
FXUS64 KEWX 260831 CCA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.
- COOLER SATURDAY, BUT THE COOLDOWN DOESN'T LAST LONG. WARMTH
RETURNS SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS NOW WITHIN THE WINDOW OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IS
HINTING AT AN EARLIER AND PERHAPS STRONGER PASSAGE THAN GLOBAL
MODELS ARE LETTING ON. OPTED TO BRING TEMPS DOWN A TAD ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING IN.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT THE "COOLDOWN
DOESN'T LAST LONG AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND
RETREATS ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RAPIDLY RETURNING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LONGWAVE TROUGHING OUT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE TREND TOWARDS ANY RAINFALL
LOOKS RATHER BLEAK AT THIS DISTANCE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITING AND OUR HOT AND DRY MARCH IS LIKELY TO
EXTEND INTO THE START OF APRIL AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
LOW STRATUS FEATURING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT, TAKES THE LONGEST FOR THE
CEILINGS TO ARRIVE. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE TO MIX OUT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING TO VFR LEVELS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN
MODERATE TO BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
OCCURRING FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING, WITH GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 22 TO 26 KT. SPEEDS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TOWARD AND
BEYOND MIDNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING ONCE MORE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE. TFS INDICATES THAT FUEL DRYNESS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP FROM EXCELLENT MOISTURE RECOVERY
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL OVERNIGHTS. A COLD FRONT THEN
ARRIVES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, CURRENT TIMING INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST
WINDS COULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET. NONETHELESS, POTENTIAL
COULD EXIST FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
SPEEDS UP. THE FORECAST STAYS DRY FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND AT TIMES FOR
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES AT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 63 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 62 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 61 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 60 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 64 87 58 / 0 0 0 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 62 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 61 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 63 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 63 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 63 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...62
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