893
FXUS64 KEWX 261045
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.
- COOLER SATURDAY, BUT THE COOLDOWN DOESN'T LAST LONG. WARMTH
RETURNS SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS NOW WITHIN THE WINDOW OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IS
HINTING AT AN EARLIER AND PERHAPS STRONGER PASSAGE THAN GLOBAL
MODELS ARE LETTING ON. OPTED TO BRING TEMPS DOWN A TAD ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING IN.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT THE "COOLDOWN
DOESN'T LAST LONG AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND
RETREATS ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RAPIDLY RETURNING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LONGWAVE TROUGHING OUT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE TREND TOWARDS ANY RAINFALL
LOOKS RATHER BLEAK AT THIS DISTANCE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITING AND OUR HOT AND DRY MARCH IS LIKELY TO
EXTEND INTO THE START OF APRIL AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
LOW STRATUS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUES THIS MORNING
AND EXPANDS TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT. THESE CLOUDS
ARE TO MIX OUT BY MIDDAY TO VFR LEVELS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST SPEEDS OCCURRING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AS HIGH AS 23 TO 26 KT. SPEEDS
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE. TFS INDICATES THAT FUEL DRYNESS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP FROM EXCELLENT MOISTURE RECOVERY
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL OVERNIGHTS. A COLD FRONT THEN
ARRIVES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, CURRENT TIMING INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST
WINDS COULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET. NONETHELESS, POTENTIAL
COULD EXIST FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
SPEEDS UP. THE FORECAST STAYS DRY FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND AT TIMES FOR
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES AT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 63 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 62 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 61 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 60 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 64 87 58 / 0 0 0 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 62 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 61 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 63 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 63 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 63 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...62
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