820
FXUS64 KEWX 280020
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
720 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT.
- RAPID RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS, THE FRONT HAS
SPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY. AS SEEN VIA OBSERVATION METARS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THE FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO
ROCKSPRINGS TO LLANO LINE. AREAS OUT AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS REACH THE 80S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH LOW 90S
EXPECTED OVER THE WINTER GARDEN AREA. ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35
MPH RANGE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL. WE ALSO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT BUT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER WE DON'T EXPECT A RAPID DROP LIKE
THE PAST FEW FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND THUS DUE TO THE FASTER FRONT ARRIVAL
HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. MANY AREAS
SHOULD SEE LOW IN THE 50S WITH AREAS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN COOL ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAA CONTINUING BEFORE
FINALLY EASING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY WITH AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOW
70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MANY
REMAINING IN THE 50S AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FINALLY RETURNS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE MANY AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY EVEN WARMER HIGHS (NEAR 90) BY MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY, BUT BY MIDWEEK, THINGS MAY
FINALLY GET INTERESTING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME REGARDING TIMING FOR OUR AREA SO FOR THE MOMENT HAVE KEPT
POPS MORE GENERALLY BLENDED CLOSER TO THE NBM WITH CHANCES 20-30%
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. BEYOND MIDWEEK ALL SIGNS POINT TO A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM LOOKS TO
BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO OUR
EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FETCH OF
GULF MOISTURE TO APPROACH OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR ANY DISTURBANCES
THAT MOVE OVER US TO TAP INTO. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE COULD BE SEEING OUR
DRY PATTERN FINALLY COME TO END.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
STRONG WINDS FOR THE FIRS FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD
VFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z ALONG I-35, AND PERHAPS LONGER
AT DRT. THE DRT PROJECTIONS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT AREA TO DEPICT
AS THE SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS ARE MORE CHECKERED ON CIG HEIGHTS
AND MORE SPARSE IN GENERAL. BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z, CIG HEIGHTS
SHOULD FALL, AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES TO
AID IN THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATION. THIS IS PROBABLY MORE LIKELY
AROUND DRT, SO WE MAY NEED TO DROP CEILINGS FASTER THAT WHAT WE'RE
SHOWING. FOR NOW, WILL JUST MONITOR THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TO
THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 70 55 83 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 71 53 83 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 71 53 83 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 50 63 51 80 / 20 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 69 56 84 / 20 20 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 68 53 83 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 54 71 52 85 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 71 53 83 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 72 54 83 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 70 55 83 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 72 57 84 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18
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