365
FXUS64 KEWX 282319
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH CLEARING LATE.
- RAPID RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THICK CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING HAS BEEN NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AS OF THIS HOUR IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE RESULT
OF CONTINUED CAA. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN DENSE WITH CLEARING NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH OUR
WESTERN AREAS LIKELY NOT BREAKING OUT OF THE DENSE CLOUD COVER UNTIL
THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT CLOUDS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THUS PREVENTING
TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. MOST AREAS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. BY
SUNDAY EXPECT WARMER TEMPS IN THE 80S AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PUSHES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR
AND SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPECT
MANY AREAS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY FOLLOWED BY EVEN WARMER
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MIDWEEK. THINGS MAY FINALLY GET INTERESTING AS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING FOR
OUR AREA SO HAVE KEPT POPS MORE GENERALLY BLENDED CLOSER TO THE
NBM WITH CHANCES 20-40% UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. BEYOND
MIDWEEK ALL SIGNS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM LOOKS TO BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE TO APPROACH OUR AREA
ALLOWING FOR ANY DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE OVER US TO TAP INTO. THE
FIRST OF WHICH LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. HIGHS DIP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 80S BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP
NEAR 90 FOR FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IMPACTING OUR AREA
BY SATURDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BE OUR FIRST DECENT SHOT OF
RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE COULD BE SEEING OUR DRY PATTERN
FINALLY COME TO END.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT OF TRICKY MVFR CIGS TO CONTEND WITH. TONIGHT'S
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE MUCH LOWER IF THE MOS GUIDANCES AND HIGHER
RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE TRUSTED. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS
REPLACED THE POOLED 700 MB MOIST LAYER THAT HAS DRIFTED EAST. LESS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT COULD MEAN THAT NO LOW CIGS FORM AT ALL. A 3-4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE SHOWN NEAR I-35 WITH BARELY VFR CIGS SHOWN
OVER AUS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL AIR COULD BE DRIEST. FARTHER WEST, WE
OPTED FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF MVFR CIGS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL FUNNEL WHATS LEFT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 55 85 63 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 53 85 62 / 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 53 84 61 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 50 82 60 / 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 56 84 63 / 40 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 52 84 62 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 84 60 / 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 53 84 61 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 55 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 56 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 57 85 63 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18
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