807
FXUS64 KEWX 291817
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
117 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAPID RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
- ANOTHER STRONG SPRING FRONT NEXT WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE LAST
TWO DAYS OF MARCH. BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS THIS DRY THROUGH
THE START OF THE WEEK. ONE THING TO NOTE IS A SPIKE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN THE 60S GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FINALLY STARTS TO GET
INTERESTING AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR TO APRIL. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE
EAST WEDNESDAY, SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POOLING OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS IN
THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE (SOME 1-2 SDS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR EARLY APRIL)
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, BUT IT'S STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT A
SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.
A SECOND COLD FRONT, THIS ONE STRONGER, WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
A MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE AIGFS, AI
ECMWF, GFS/ECMWF, GEM, AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS
FRONT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE,
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO NARROW IN ON THE BEST WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN IT COMES TO STORMS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MID-AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOCAL GUSTS FROM
20-25 KNOTS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WIND OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WIND BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND INCREASES MID-MORNING ON
MONDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 62 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27
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