474
FXUS64 KEWX 300526
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND TUESDAY
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH MORE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW. TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
FILLING IN BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR BOTH TOMORROW
AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN FILL IN BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
WE BEGIN TO GET INTO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS A DRYLINE THAT
SLOSHES BACK AND FORTH OUT IN WEST TX TRIES TO MAKE IT'S WAY
EASTWARD INTO POSSIBLY VAL VERDE COUNTY BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SOME
HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST. ELSEWHERE, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL
THIS DRYLINE PROPAGATES FARTHER EASTWARD WEDNESDAY, HELPED ALONG
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO WITH MOST
SHOWING A LINE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE THE
TIMING BEING QUITE LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT MAKES FOR A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. WE COULD SEE POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IF THIS TROUGH SLOWS DOWN.
WE REMAIN WARM GOING INTO THURSDAY AS WE DRY OUT BY THE AFTERNOON
AND GET A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY,
HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS FORM THROUGH
THE DAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS HELPS TO PUMP IN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. WE GET OUR NEXT TASTE OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH MOST OF TX AND GETS
TO US BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT LOOKS MUCH MORE PROMISING
REGARDING BOTH CONVECTION AND RAIN POTENTIAL AS MODELS SO FAR HAVE
CONTINUED TO BE VERY IN SYNC WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING
AND MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO
GET INTO SPECIFICS BUT CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK AS THINGS GET IRONED
OUT. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND LOW 70S ANTICIPATED
FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE
REGION FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE
GENERALLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP STRATUS FAVORED OVER FOG. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE FOR RETURNING LOW
CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP. GUSTS TO THE 25 KT RANGE IS POSSIBLE.
ANTICIPATE FOR SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN OF
AROUND OR ABOVE 25%. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST FUEL DRYNESS MAPPING
FROM TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR AND OF NEAR NORMAL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY
AND BEYOND AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WETTING RAIN ANDS STORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND AGAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 64 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 63 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 64 88 68 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 64 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...62
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