362
FXUS64 KEWX 310520
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1220 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BELOW
AVERAGE EASTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING MAINTAINS A PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING ERODING TO MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING CONTINUES THE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WHILE A CAPPING INVERSION KEEPS RAIN OUT OF
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE AND THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO,
THEN DRIFTING INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY ON A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH TWO PERIODS OF RAIN
CHANCES. THE FIRST WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PLAINS SENDS THE DRYLINE
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE MAKES LITTLE OR NO
PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA, IT WILL GENERATE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN, STEERING FLOW ALOFT TAKES THE LINE OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WEDNESDAY EVENING, HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY THE REST OF THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ON BRIEF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
THE SECOND PERIOD OCCURS WHEN A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MAY
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY MONDAY, THOUGH TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
DRIER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SIMILAR TO THE FIRST ROUND, A FEW
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. THEN, FAIR
WEATHER IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE KEEPS TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD ADVECTION
LEADS TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS HAS ALREADY BEGAN TO DEVELOP AND
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. THE I-35 TAF SITES (KAUS, KSAT, AND
KSSF) HAVE ALREADY GONE MVFR. THE LOW CLOUDS EXPAND WESTWARD
TOWARDS AND BEYOND SUNRISE. KDRT SHOULD EXPECT FOR THE MVFR
CEILINGS STARTING AROUND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND 16Z
TO 17Z AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND CLOUDS BASES GRADUALLY
RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE
LOWEST FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING. GUSTS WILL TREND
HIGHEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT AROUND 25 KT.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAR 31 (TUE) APR 1 (WED)
AUSTIN BERGSTROM: 89 (1974) 92 (2011)
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY: 90 (1946, 1974, 2023) 93 (2011)
SAN ANTONIO INTL: 93 (1929, 1946) 93 (1939, 2011)
DEL RIO INTL: 100 (1913) 99 (2024)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 90 67 / 0 0 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 68 93 69 / 10 0 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 91 67 / 0 0 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 68 89 69 / 10 0 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 68 92 69 / 0 0 10 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...62
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