660
FXUS64 KEWX 311724
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BELOW
AVERAGE EASTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING MAINTAINS A PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING ERODING TO MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING CONTINUES THE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WHILE A CAPPING INVERSION KEEPS RAIN OUT OF
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE AND THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO,
THEN DRIFTING INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY ON A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH TWO PERIODS OF RAIN
CHANCES. THE FIRST WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PLAINS SENDS THE DRYLINE
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE MAKES LITTLE OR NO
PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA, IT WILL GENERATE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN, STEERING FLOW ALOFT TAKES THE LINE OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WEDNESDAY EVENING, HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY THE REST OF THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ON BRIEF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
THE SECOND PERIOD OCCURS WHEN A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MAY
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY MONDAY, THOUGH TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
DRIER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SIMILAR TO THE FIRST ROUND, A FEW
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. THEN, FAIR
WEATHER IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE KEEPS TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD ADVECTION
LEADS TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF
THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS FORECAST
TODAY AND TUESDAY, SLIGHTLY WEAKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND 05-06Z FOR I-35 TERMINALS AND
SPREAD WEST TO KDRT AROUND 11Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAR 31 (TUE) APR 1 (WED)
AUSTIN BERGSTROM: 89 (1974) 92 (2011)
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY: 90 (1946, 1974, 2023) 93 (2011)
SAN ANTONIO INTL: 93 (1929, 1946) 93 (1939, 2011)
DEL RIO INTL: 100 (1913) 99 (2024)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 90 68 83 / 0 0 30 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 90 67 84 / 0 10 30 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 67 84 / 0 10 20 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 87 66 82 / 0 0 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 93 69 88 / 0 10 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 90 67 84 / 0 0 40 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 92 65 86 / 0 0 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 91 67 84 / 0 10 20 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 88 69 83 / 0 20 20 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 90 68 84 / 0 0 20 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 91 70 86 / 0 0 20 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...27
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