078
FXUS64 KEWX 311839
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
139 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BELOW
AVERAGE EASTER SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A WEAK ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS OVER OUR AREA WITH TROUGHING
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND MODEL ANALYSES. HOWEVER, WITH THE JET
STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SPURRED BY THE DAYTIME WARMTH COULD TREK INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY IN THE EARLY EVENING, BUT CAPPING QUICKLY
RETURNS AND ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US/FOUR
CORNERS REGION. A FEW ISOLATED AND LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS TOMORROW. ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE
RIO GRANDE, TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A WARMER AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE MID- TO UPPER-90S WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS MASS
OF WARMER AIR.
LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH DEPARTS
NEW MEXICO AND PUSHES ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO
FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS, WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO OUR AREA AS THEY FOLLOW THE MEAN WINDS AND UPWARDS
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS ARE INDICATED OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, COINCIDING WITH STRONGER DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OVER
MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE RIO GRANDE CLOSER TO 5-
9 PM, BUT MOST OF THE ACTION LOOKS TO BE AFTER 10 PM, CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS STORMS PUSH EAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND AROUND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL RISK FROM THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. BOUNDARY-PARALLEL MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO STORMS CONGEALING QUICKLY, TRANSITIONING THE
MAIN THREAT TOWARDS ISOLATED STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
RISK AREAS FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE MAINLY OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY, EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE THE SPC
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS BETWEEN A LEVEL 1 (MARGINAL) TO LEVEL 2
(SLIGHT) 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORMS PUSH TOWARDS THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS, LOWERED INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERALLY
REDUCE THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK WITH TIME. THE RAINS SHOULD BE
MOVING STEADILY ENOUGH TO PREVENT RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE
0.5-INCH TO 1.5-INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MAY SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS, ON THE RECEIVING END OF THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
IT WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE WAKE OF THOSE RAINS AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID 90S. A MUCH
WEAKER IMPULSE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW CHANCE (AROUND 10-20%) OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGER STORY IS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, MORE
INTENSE THAN THE MIDWEEK ONE, MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECTING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BE FARTHER NORTH, STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT ROLLS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE ON
FRIDAY EVENING FROM DRY LINE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER FORCING AND MORE CONFIDENT RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SW TO NE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND
GOOD MOISTURE SUPPLY ALONG IT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS.
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ADJUSTED ENSEMBLE BLEND
AND STATISTICAL CONSENSUS AIDS INDICATE HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY COULD BE
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY APRIL ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS
PENETRATING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW
TO NEAR AVERAGE TO START NEXT WEEK DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
RETURNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF
THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS FORECAST
TODAY AND TUESDAY, SLIGHTLY WEAKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND 05-06Z FOR I-35 TERMINALS AND
SPREAD WEST TO KDRT AROUND 11Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAR 31 (TUE) APR 1 (WED)
AUSTIN BERGSTROM: 89 (1974) 92 (2011)
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY: 90 (1946, 1974, 2023) 93 (2011)
SAN ANTONIO INTL: 93 (1929, 1946) 93 (1939, 2011)
DEL RIO INTL: 100 (1913) 99 (2024)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 90 68 83 / 0 0 30 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 90 67 84 / 0 10 30 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 67 84 / 0 10 20 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 87 66 82 / 0 0 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 93 69 88 / 0 10 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 90 67 84 / 0 0 40 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 92 65 86 / 0 0 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 91 67 84 / 0 10 20 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 88 69 83 / 0 20 20 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 90 68 84 / 0 0 20 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 91 70 86 / 0 0 20 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...27
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