875
FXUS64 KEWX 010523
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BELOW
AVERAGE EASTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A MOIST AIRMASS. A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE US 77 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE DRYLINE STALLS WEST OF OUR AREA.
FORCING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND DAYTIME HEATING GENERATES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEN, THE ACTIVITY TRACKS TO THE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST ON
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DUE TO FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. LARGE HAIL IS THE INITIAL THREAT,
THEN A STRONG WIND THREAT DEVELOPS SHOULD THEY CONGEAL INTO
CLUSTERS. THE NEW 00Z CAMS ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES. FORCING WANES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AND DISSIPATE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ON
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. A STRONGER/DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER OUR
WESTERN AREAS, THEN ALL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES TURN BELOW AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER SUNDAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSES OVERRUN THE COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS, THEN END MONDAY AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. THANKS
NWS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ANOTHER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH RETURNING LOW CLOUDS WITH MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE, INCLUDING NEAR KSAT. LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WITH TIME AND SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS REACHING KDRT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY AROUND 17Z AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND CLOUD
BASES GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTENT MODERATE
TO BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BE
LOWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SPEEDS PICK UP INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING AT AROUND 25 KT. THE
DRYLINE TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM THIS EVENING TOWARDS THE
OVERNIGHT. ADDED PROB30 AT KDRT LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE I-35 TERMINALS TOWARDS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WE'LL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR THOSE SITES. OTHERWISE, THE LOW
CLOUDS RETURN INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE MORE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APR 1 (WED)
AUSTIN BERGSTROM: 92 (2011)
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY: 93 (2011)
SAN ANTONIO INTL: 93 (1939, 2011)
DEL RIO INTL: 99 (2024)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 68 84 70 / 0 30 60 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 68 85 69 / 0 20 60 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 85 68 / 0 20 50 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 66 82 67 / 0 40 60 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 70 88 70 / 10 40 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 83 68 / 0 40 70 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 66 86 66 / 0 20 30 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 67 85 68 / 0 20 50 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 70 84 70 / 10 10 50 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 68 85 70 / 0 20 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 69 87 70 / 0 10 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...62
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