888
FXUS64 KEWX 011737
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BELOW
AVERAGE EASTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A MOIST AIRMASS. A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE US 77 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE DRYLINE STALLS WEST OF OUR AREA.
FORCING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND DAYTIME HEATING GENERATES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEN, THE ACTIVITY TRACKS TO THE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST ON
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DUE TO FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. LARGE HAIL IS THE INITIAL THREAT,
THEN A STRONG WIND THREAT DEVELOPS SHOULD THEY CONGEAL INTO
CLUSTERS. THE NEW 00Z CAMS ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES. FORCING WANES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AND DISSIPATE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ON
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. A STRONGER/DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER OUR
WESTERN AREAS, THEN ALL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES TURN BELOW AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER SUNDAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSES OVERRUN THE COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS, THEN END MONDAY AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. THANKS
NWS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DRT COULD GO MVFR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE
BECOMING VFR FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 24
TO 28 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID/LATE EVENING
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS RETURN FOR THE I-35 TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NOON THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR AUS AND SAT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THERE IS 30 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME,
THERE IS A WINDOW FROM 15Z TO 17Z WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR DRT, THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW FOR MVFR
CIGS AROUND 14Z TO 16Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 17Z
THURSDAY AT ALL AREA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 69 81 70 / 0 20 50 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 68 82 69 / 0 20 50 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 68 82 68 / 0 10 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 79 68 / 0 40 60 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 70 86 70 / 10 20 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 81 68 / 0 30 60 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 65 86 67 / 0 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 68 83 69 / 0 10 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 70 82 70 / 10 10 30 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 69 83 70 / 0 10 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 86 70 / 0 10 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...17
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