208
FXUS64 KEWX 121122
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
622 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT SUNDAY, A LINE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR (MAINLY NEAR THE AUSTIN AREA)
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN, GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE, IS LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A RESIDUAL ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND UNDERLIES THE CURRENTLY ACTIVE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES. HOWEVER, THAT RISK THAT SHOULD
GENERALLY DECLINE DURING THE MORNING AS THE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST
AND START TO LOSE THEIR DEFINITION AMID STABILIZING AIR.
THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. THE
MORNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSUME SOME OF THE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CAPPING. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS MAY LEAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF UPDRAFTS PUNCH CLEANLY THROUGH THE
CAP, PARTICULARLY ON THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN. NOT ALL OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THESE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THOSE THAT DO FAVOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL
COUNTRY. GIVEN VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES, EVEN RELATIVELY SMALL SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE, THE PRESENCE OF A LEVEL 2 OF 4
(SLIGHT) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING UNDERSCORES THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY. BASED ON THIS ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS OUR MAIN
CONCERN WITH TODAY'S STORMS.
TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SUFFICIENT HEATING
OVER MEXICO AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE MAY
PROMPT THE DEVELOPMENT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
THESE WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. IF THEY DO, THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG WIND
SHEAR (30-40 KT BULK SHEAR) AND HIGH INSTABILITY (ABOVE 2000 J/KG
CAPE) COULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. THIS POTENTIAL IS ENCAPSULATED IN THE LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE THE ACTIVITY
EARLIER ON SUNDAY, THE OCCURRENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY
SENSITIVE TO PRECEDING DEVELOPMENTS. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW
VERY SPARSE STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING, WHILE THE COARSER
SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS AND MACHINE LEARNING MODELS FAVOR MORE RAIN
COVERAGE. WE'LL LIKELY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY ONCE
WE'RE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS IMPACTS THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS EASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY, BUT NONETHELESS
IT WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH PW ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STRONGER
CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, AND SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT
SHOWER COVERAGE. STILL, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY
IN THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN HELPING TO SHAPE OUR
UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH THE WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER TEXAS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS, TYPICALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS AIRMASS, STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AROUND MIDWEEK, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER
PATTERN SWINGS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND
OF STRONGER STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL US. WHILE THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS
TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE WORST WEATHER FARTHER NORTH, SOME
STRONGER STORMS COULD EXTEND INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND KEEP SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED
COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE WEEK,
BUOYED INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY HIGH DEW POINTS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S, BUT COULD WARM SOME INTO THE LOW 90S
LATE NEXT WEEK DURING SLIGHTLY CALMER STRETCHES WITH LESS RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA TERMINALS
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
MOVING CURRENTLY OVER DRT AND COULD LAST THROUGH 13Z. SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE MOST DIFFICULT TERMINALS ARE THE ONES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. WITH THAT SAID, HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBLE ROUNDS FOR AUS
AND THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THE STORMS TO IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO
SITES (MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON). THE STORM ACTIVITY COULD COME TO
AN END MID EVENING, HOWEVER, IFR CIGS ARE IN STORE FOR THE I-35
SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST
FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 69 85 69 / 70 40 20 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 69 85 68 / 70 40 20 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 80 69 84 68 / 70 40 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 68 82 67 / 90 40 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 69 87 70 / 60 30 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 69 84 67 / 70 40 20 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 67 84 67 / 80 40 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 80 69 85 68 / 70 40 30 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 80 69 85 69 / 70 40 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 69 84 69 / 70 40 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 70 86 70 / 70 40 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...17
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