523
FXUS64 KEWX 131740
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF OUR AREA, CARVING OUT MARGINALLY MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM ABOUT 1.8
INCHES TO A STILL MOIST BUT MORE PALATABLE 1.2-1.4 INCHES. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS, BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL SUPPORT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BEFORE MIXING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN
THE DAY, SUFFICIENT HEATING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO, ALONG WITH
A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THESE MAY DRIFT
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU NEAR SUNSET.
HOWEVER, MORE STABLE CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THESE
STORMS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED WITH MOST NOT MAKING IT VERY FAR INTO
OUR AREA.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY SUPPORT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO MONDAY, WITH
INITIATION ALONG THE DRY LINE POSSIBLE LATER IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IS THAT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE AREA, DRIVING MORE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FAVORING AN UPTICK IN
STORM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE RELATIVE TO MONDAY. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH HUMID AIR
PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A PROMINENT PORTION OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. THE FAVORED
AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR REGION, BUT
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW EXTENSION OF POTENTIALLY A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS EXTENDING TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ISOLATED THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AFTER THIS
MIDWEEK ACTION, BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN ITS WAKE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON
THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, AS THE BROAD WESTERN US TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER EAST, ENSEMBLES
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DECENTLY STRONG MID-APRIL COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ON THIS FRONT, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
GAUGE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISK. A PERIOD OF BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AIR SPILLING
SOUTH FROM THE ROCKIES, SWITCHING UP THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS TO A DRIER AND COOLER ONE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT INTO LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR
RETURNS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME TSRA AT THE TERMINAL,
SO A PROB30 WAS UTILIZED FROM 03Z-07Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 84 69 85 / 10 0 10 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 84 67 84 / 10 0 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 66 80 / 10 10 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 84 69 84 / 50 40 60 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 67 81 / 10 0 10 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 66 82 / 20 10 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 84 69 84 / 10 0 10 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 70 85 / 10 0 10 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page