643
FXUS64 KEWX 141014
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
514 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-10.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE ATMOSPHERIC SETUP FOR TUESDAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. MOST SHOULD STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BENEATH A STEADY
CAPPING INVERSION AND A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF MEXICO AND BROADER HEIGHT FALLS FROM A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER-
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A MORE LIFT, GIVING SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO
ISOLATED STORMS LATER IN THE DAY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AND PROVIDING A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THEIR LONGEVITY.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER
WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY CROSSING
INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OR RIO GRANDE PLAINS NEAR AND
AFTER SUNSET. EDWARDS, KINNEY, AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING STORM ACTIVITY, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 5-10 PM. A FEW
MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS US-57, THOUGH THOSE
CHANCES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN STRONGER CAPPING IN THAT AREA.
CONTINUED SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND A MODEST 30-KT LOW LEVEL JET COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE HILL COUNTRY, THOUGH
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD LESSEN
QUICKLY BY 12 AM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE REMNANT SHOWERS FADE.
UP TO A LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
HIGHLIGHTED, WITH STORMS PRESENTING THE TYPICAL RISKS FOR SPRINGTIME
WEST TEXAS SUPERCELLS... LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE EVENING. THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, WITH A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE BROADER UPPER-TROUGH NEARS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE
RISING MOTION ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL
TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE OVERLAP OF WARM/MOIST AIR WITH RESIDUAL ASCENT
OVER OUR AREA SHOULD FACILITATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, BUT THE TROUGH PLACEMENT WOULD TEND
TO FAVOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE AUSTIN
AREA AND LESS OF A POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. A
MARGINAL SEVERE AND EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK ACCOMPANIES THESE STORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY REMAIN ROUGHLY SEASONABLY
WARM, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S FOR MOST. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
MOIST AIR, ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, ARE HELPING TO PREVENT
HIGHS FROM BUILDING FARTHER. HOWEVER, THAT MOIST AIR IS ALSO KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
AFTER WEDNESDAY'S TROUGH PASSES, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE
CALMER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE'LL LIKELY SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE RIDGE SHAPES A
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA, BRINGING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. DESPITE THE QUIETER WEATHER, IT'LL STILL BE RATHER HUMID AS DEW
POINTS STAY AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH COULD
SEE EXPOSED AND ELEVATED TERRAIN EXPERIENCING A 20-MPH SUSTAINED
WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BARREL OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW BEHIND
THE TROUGH IS WELL-SUITED TO BRING A STOUT COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CYCLES THROUGH THE WARM GULF AIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOULD THE FRONT ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WOULD BRING CRISP AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST MODEL
AVERAGE HAS LOWS IN THE 50S, BUT ACCOUNTING FOR THE BLURRINESS OF
MODEL BLENDS AT THIS RANGE, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WOULD BE
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-10, AS REFLECTED IN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-APRIL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA SITES TO ABOUT
NOON TODAY. MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER OR THROUGH 20Z FOR
KDRT BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. KEPT THE PROB30 FOR KDRT FOR EARLY
THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE FROM MEXICO INTO THE RIO GRANDE. MVFR
CIGS COME BACK AROUND 04Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AIRPORTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 69 84 69 / 10 10 40 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 67 85 67 / 10 10 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 85 67 / 0 10 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 67 79 66 / 10 20 40 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 69 85 68 / 30 40 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 82 66 / 0 10 40 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 67 83 65 / 10 20 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 85 67 / 10 10 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 85 69 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 69 85 68 / 0 10 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 70 86 69 / 0 10 30 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...17
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