673
FXUS64 KEWX 151117
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
617 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
- CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90; A
NEAR WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS SATURDAY FROM A COLD
FRONT.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A RUDE BEGINNING TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE CAME WITH SEVERE
STORMS THAT SLIGHTLY OVERACHIEVED THEIR TIMING AND A VERY UNTIMELY
KDFX RADAR CRASH WITH A SEVERE STORM BEARING DOWN ON TOP OF DEL RIO.
THE STEADY BUT UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY
DYNAMICS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST 2 AM, BUT MOST OF THE HREF SOLUTIONS DIMINISH THIS ACTIVITY
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LONG LIVED ELEVATED SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND
DISSIPATED STORMS ARE A GOOD SIGN THAT PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE
ELEVATED, AND THE HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH UP TO 1.75 AT AROUND DRT
IN ONE OF THE MORE RECENT RUNS. WITH THE NEAR MIDNIGHT OBSERVATION
OF HEAVY LIGHTNING AND STORMS THAT ARE STARTING TO TRAIN A BIT, WE
COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING TAKE PLACE BEFORE WE ABLE TO GET THE
STORM TRENDS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WITH THE SLIGHT OVER ACHIEVEMENT OF CONVECTION AND ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED TO LIGHT UP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY, WE MAY
NEED TO REVIEW THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DAYTIME AND POSSIBLY EXPAND
HIGHER CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT IS OUT THERE CURRENTLY. BUT
FOR NOW WE'LL STICK TO THE BLENDS AND HOPE THE CONSENSUS IS CORRECT
ON THE LOWER COVERAGES. WITH THE TYPE OF STORMS WE ARE GETTING AND
THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING OCCURRING, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY, AND NOT HAVING A RADAR TO COVER THE WESTERN AREAS THAT
ALREADY GOT SOME HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A BIT NERVE-RACKING.
LATER IN THE EVENING, THE CAP IS ASSUMED TO HAVE STRENGTHENED AS
COVERAGE WAINS SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE NIGH AS COMPARED TO WHAT WE'RE
SEEING TONIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERK UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER WHAT'S
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
BUT THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOME DRY-LINE STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FRIDAY, PERSISTENCE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAK RIDGING PATTERN
OVER THE AREA IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY. BREEZY, WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID
90S. FRIDAY NIGHT, THE PATTERN DESTABILIZES FROM ANOTHER LOW
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS, SETTING UP MORE UNSTABLE SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER TX. INITIALLY THE STORMS WILL STICK TO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AS THEY HAVE BEEN TONIGHT, BUT A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
SATURDAY WILL BRING WHAT COULD BE A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH MOST
OF THE FALLING RAIN OVERRUNNING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT IN APRIL, BUT WE THINK
MOST OF THE POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BETTER BEHAVED AS THE
FRONTAL LAYER TO ARRIVE IS APPARENTLY GOING TO BE QUITE A BIT DEEPER
THAN OUR MORE RECENT FRONTS. PLUS THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. BESIDES HAVING THE STRONG FRONT COOLING US
OFF FOR A LATE SPRING TREAT, WE ALSO SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A FAVORABLE
PATTERN OF CONTINUED OVERRUNNING WHICH MIGHT HELP US ON THE RAIN
DEFICIT PROBLEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
LOOKS LIKE KAUS STAYS VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CAN'T RULE OUT MVFR CIGS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AS FAR AS KSAT, KSSF AND KDRT, THESE SITES ARE
FORECAST TO STAY MVFR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KDRT FOR
THIS EVENING AS STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 69 89 69 / 40 30 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 68 90 69 / 30 30 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 89 69 / 30 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 66 85 67 / 50 30 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 69 90 70 / 20 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 67 87 68 / 40 40 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 65 89 66 / 40 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 89 69 / 30 30 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 89 69 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 69 89 70 / 30 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...17
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