985
FXUS64 KEWX 151835
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
135 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 90; A NEAR WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A MESSY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS FURTHER MOST
OF THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO CLEAR
AND IT'S POSSIBLE THEY REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF WE GET JUST A FEW HOURS OF
SOME SUNSHINE WE COULD SEE CONVECTION BLOSSOM AS WE HAVE 1000-1500
J/KG MUCAPE ALONG WITH DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR. ANY
CONVECTION IF IT DOES FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME SEVERE WITH MAIN
RISKS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH, SPC HAS
A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION MAY FORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY WITH AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
SEEING ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVERTOP OF
US.
THIS BRIEF RIDGING THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW OUR AREA TO DRY OUT AND
WARM UP NICELY WITH MANY LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH MOST STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70. ADDITIONALLY, THE HUMIDITY REMAINS THANKS TO THE VERY
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LEVEL FLOW AT
THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
OUR QUIET AND WARM WEATHER EXTENDS FOR ONE MORE DAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA. IT WILL LIKELY ALSO BE
A BIT BREEZY AS WE BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS COLORADO INTO OK.
ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX SOMETIME
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND ARRIVING ACROSS OUR AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BLOSSOM OUT AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD HELP FUNNEL IN RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS SETUP WITH WPC ONCE AGAIN
HIGHLIGHTING A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK IN AN AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
FREDERICKSBURG TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO GONZALES LINE. ADDITIONALLY,
SPC CURRENTLY HAS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER
ITS A BIT TOO SOON TO DISCUSS WHAT SEVERE THREATS MAY BE. THE
LIKELY CONVECTION MODE COULD BECOME LINEAR THUS LIMITING THE
TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL RISK.
ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO STICK AROUND THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AND SUB SEVERE AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED
WELL THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE THE
PEAK OF THIS CAA ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT MAKING
IT OUT OF THE 60S FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. A
GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FINALLY
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH AN
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WE ARE SEEING CIGS TREND
BACK TO VFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THICK, WE STILL EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING. A QUICKER RETURN TO MVFR WAS ADDED TO SAT/SSF
THIS EVENING GIVEN THICK CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO REMAIN INTACT. WHILE
WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 THURSDAY MORNING (12-
15Z), CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND PREFER TO LEAVE AS MVFR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE, BUT DECENT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OUT WEST AT DRT, MVFR MAY
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. WE ARE SEEING SOME CU DEVELOP TO
THE WEST OF DRT OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GROUP FOR DRT THIS EVENING FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 89 69 89 / 30 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 89 68 90 / 30 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 67 86 / 30 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 90 69 91 / 20 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 87 67 88 / 30 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 89 69 88 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 69 90 / 20 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 69 91 / 20 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page