798
FXUS64 KEWX 161726
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING, BUT PRIMARILY EXPECT DRY, THOUGH HUMID,
CONDITIONS TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO MID
90S DURING THE AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S.
A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL AID IN A
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH THE MID 90S
FORECAST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EAST BRINGING A COLD FRONT
TO OUR DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1.5-1.75 INCHES. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INSTANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA IN A LEVEL 1 OF 4
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS DAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AS WELL, THOUGH THE EARLIER
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING MILD LOWS ON SATURDAY FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT
RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS WELL THIS DAY, BUT WILL LIKELY BE SUB-SEVERE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
A DISTURBANCE WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOME OF
OUR AREA INTO MID-WEEK.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS EASTERLY ON MONDAY WITH COOLEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK FORECAST IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THEN RETURNS TUESDAY BRINGING A
DAY BY DAY WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL SITES SHORTLY, BUT DRT MAY HOLD
ONTO 2000K FOOT CEILINGS FOR ANOTHER HOUR. SAT, CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT LOWER, BUT WENT WITH VFR FOR THE START OF THIS TAF WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD DECK EXPECTED SOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP AT SAT AND SSF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE
THEM AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY GIVEN BREEZIER WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 90 65 76 / 0 0 10 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 91 66 77 / 0 0 10 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 66 78 / 0 0 0 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 59 70 / 0 10 20 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 92 66 77 / 30 0 20 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 63 73 / 0 0 10 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 92 64 77 / 0 0 10 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 66 78 / 0 0 0 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 88 68 81 / 0 0 0 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 91 67 79 / 0 0 10 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 69 81 / 0 0 0 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...MMM
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