731
FXUS64 KEWX 162307
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
607 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR RIO GRAND PLAINS
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AFTER A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM AND DRY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/NEAR THE BORDER AND PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
VAL VERDE COUNTY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH AN ADVANCING DRYLINE
OVER WEST TX FOR STORMS SHOULD THEY FIRE. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SOME
WEAK CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW MOST
OF THIS IS OFFSET BY SOMEWHAT STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANING
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE TO PERHAPS VERY
LARGE (2+ INCHES) HAIL. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTION WILL FORM HOWEVER AS THE AREA HAS BEEN LOCKED
UNDERNEATH A PRETTY STOUT CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS NOCTURNAL COOLING HAPPENS AFTER
SUNSET. AS SUCH, SPC HAS EXPANDED THERE LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK TO
INCLUDE VAL VERDE, EDWARDS, AND KINNEY COUNTIES. MOST PLACES AGAIN
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING WITH LOWS FOR MOST RIGHT AROUND 70
DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE WHAT IS LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL EVEN THOUGH IT'L BE QUITE WARM AND RATHER BREEZY FOR MOST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING WE START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
CONTINUES PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY
BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP BY SATURDAY MORNING(MORE ON
THAT IN THE LONG TERM)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM 1.5-1.75 INCHES. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE MAY BE A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM BEHIND THE LINE ALBEIT REMAIN ELEVATED
AND SUB SEVERE THUS BRINGING IN SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR AREA.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF AREA BY SUNDAY WITH ONLY
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE WITH MORE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INFLUENCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CROSSES
OVER OUR AREA. WE CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT MUCH CHILLIER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 50S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND 60S EVERYWHERE ELSE AS CAA CONTINUES. WE FINALLY
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HELPING US TO GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
INITIAL ITEM TO MONITOR WILL BE IF A STORM IS ABLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, NEAR KDRT, OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD. INSERTED A PROB30 THROUGH 03Z AT KDRT WITH
INCREASED WINDS FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, MINOR IMPACTS TO THE
VISIBILITY/CEILING, AND WITH -TSRA. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
THEN DEVELOP AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOCATIONS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE,
INCLUDING KDRT, WILL BE SLOWEST TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CEILINGS IMPROVE AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRENDS
GUSTY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 90 65 76 / 0 0 10 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 91 66 77 / 0 0 10 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 66 78 / 0 0 0 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 59 70 / 0 10 20 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 92 66 77 / 20 0 20 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 63 73 / 0 0 10 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 92 64 77 / 0 0 10 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 66 78 / 0 0 0 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 88 68 81 / 0 0 0 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 91 67 79 / 0 0 10 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 69 81 / 0 0 0 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...62
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