525
FXUS64 KEWX 171744
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, THEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- DRY TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHICH
PUTS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS SET-UP WITH ALLOW FOR BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH MOST FAVORED IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL TODAY
AS CLOUDS SCATTER MID TO LATE MORNING LEAVING AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
WIND RELAXES LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD BE RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP SOMETIME AROUND
SUNRISE TO MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAYTIME MAKING TEMPERATURES TRICKY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ITS GRADUAL SLOPE. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE 50S AND 60S AND DID TREND COLDER ON SATURDAY THAN THE NBM.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AIDING IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN IS MAINLY
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO OVERRUNNING BUT WITH GOOD
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE WE COULD STILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS DON'T
APPEAR TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH LREF GUIDANCE SHOWING ABOUT A 25 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE LOW TO MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SUNDAY DURING THE DAY, WITH MAINLY COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN STORE. BREEZY NORTH TO EAST WIND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE EASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
INTO TUESDAY. THE CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME, THOUGH WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE WEEKEND.
WE'LL START TO SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING A DAY BY DAY WARMING TREND BACK TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS
RETURNING INTO THE 80S MID-WEEK. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW, BUT
DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND A DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS KEEP RAIN CHANCES NON-
ZERO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A FROPA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES, FIRST AT AUS
AROUND 12Z THEN AT DRT 14Z, THEN FINALLY AROUND 15Z AT SAT AND
SSF. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z-06Z BEFORE
WINDS LIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
PROB30S FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT AUS AND SAT AND PREVAILING SHOWERS
BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY. OPTED TO USE VCSH AT SSF BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.
WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 69 52 75 / 10 60 60 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 69 53 74 / 0 50 60 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 72 53 74 / 0 40 70 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 62 49 71 / 20 60 50 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 69 56 68 / 10 50 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 65 50 73 / 10 60 60 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 72 53 70 / 0 40 60 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 72 53 74 / 0 50 70 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 77 54 74 / 0 50 70 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 72 54 73 / 0 40 70 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 76 56 72 / 0 40 70 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...MMM
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