788
FXUS64 KEWX 172339
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- DAMP WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAINS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
IT'S BEEN A BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AS
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED 10-20 MPH SOUTHERLIES PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE BREEZES SHOULD
LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS STABILIZE, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH MAY PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY FOR THIS DEEP INTO SPRING,
IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE
HREF MEMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN ARRIVAL JUST BEFORE DAWN OVER
THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO
REACH MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, BUT
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG MORNING CAP AND INITIALLY SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH SHIFTS MOST OF THE FRONTAL RAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT, MAINLY DURING THE LATE-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN IS
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT THE BEST CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. MOST OF THE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE LIGHT AND STRATIFORM, BUT A
FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED HIGH-BASE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. HI-
RES MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THESE WILL STRADDLE THE 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM, WHICH TRAVERSES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 5 PM AND 2 AM. ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG AND MODEST LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT MAINLY SMALLER HAIL
SIZES FROM THE STRONGER CELLS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY EASES UP SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WANES AND DROPS FARTHER SOUTH, BUT
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHOULD STILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH-BASED, COOL SHOWERS AREN'T
ESPECIALLY EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS, SO RAIN TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY
IN THE 1/4 TO 1 INCH RANGE FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS, FOR
MOSTLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA.
IT WILL BE A CLOUDY, COOL, DAMP, AND WINDY AFTERNOON SATURDAY,
FEELING MORE LIKE LATE-AUTUMN AS TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INTO THE LOW 60S AND 50S. ABOUT HALF OF HREF MEMBERS SHOW
TEMPERATURES MANAGING TO SLIP BELOW 50 IN THE HILL COUNTRY EVEN
BEFORE SUNSET. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ON PAR OR BELOW DAILY RECORD
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES (BELOW ABOUT THE 3RD PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR), BUT WE LIKELY WON'T BE OFFICIALLY SETTING NEW RECORDS AS
THE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER. WHILE WINDS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE PERSISTENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
SLOWS THE RATE OF COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY FOR MOST, THOUGH THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT
WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WILL
STILL PUT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL DRAG MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWER. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SHIFT
EAST WITH TIME, BUT LINGERING LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR RAINS
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35. RECURRING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN AS HIGH THETA-E AIR RETURNS, WITH
ACCOMPANYING THUNDER.
A WARMING TREND RETURNS AFTER MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
RIDGING ALOFT REESTABLISH, BRINGING WARM NEAR-AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW, BUT MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A PERSISTENT WEST TEXAS DRY LINE KEEP RAIN
CHANCES NON-ZERO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LOW TAF CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED EARLY OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP STRATUS CIGS VFR FOR MOST OF THE
EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SHAPE AS
WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY. A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO THE THE
NORTHERN CWA AS MOST CIGS LOWER INTO IFR CLOSE TO 12Z. THE FRONT
WILL BE SWIFT, AND BY 15Z MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE
NORTH BREEZE. CONSENSUS OF MODEL REFLECTIVITY DATA WOULD SUGGEST A
PERSISTENT FETCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KNOTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE PRIMARY
CIG IS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. AFTER DUSK, THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT TO VFR AS THE FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS FURTHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 69 52 75 / 10 60 60 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 69 53 74 / 0 50 60 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 72 53 74 / 0 40 70 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 62 49 71 / 20 60 50 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 69 56 68 / 10 50 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 65 50 73 / 10 60 60 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 72 53 70 / 0 40 60 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 72 53 74 / 0 50 70 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 77 54 74 / 0 50 70 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 72 54 73 / 0 40 70 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 76 56 72 / 0 40 70 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page