468
FXUS64 KEWX 190347
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1047 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
AROUND 3 AM WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADAULLY DECREASING N TO S EARLY
SUNDAY.
- GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN TONIGHT.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID-WEEK WITH MODERATE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE FORMATION OF LARGE STORM CLUSTERS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND HILL COUNTRY HAVE US PUSHING THE OVERNIGHT POPS HIGHER, WHICH
I HOPE IS NOT A JINX. THE MESSAGING OF JUST SOME ISOLATED STORMS
WAS A BIT OVERSTATED, AS THE COVERAGE IN THIS OVERRUNNING PATTERN
HAS BEEN PROLIFIC, SO MUCH SO THAT IT HAS COME AT THE EXPENSE OF
OTHER AREAS ONLY GETTING SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE EVEN THOUGH POP
COVERAGE WAS RATHER OVERSTATED FOR THOSE AREAS. HOPEFULLY THESE
CLUSTERS HOLD ON TO THEIR AT LEAST POSSIBLE UPSCALING AND PROVIDE
A BIT MORE SOLID COVERAGE. PARTS OF SAN ANTONIO HAVE BEEN MISSING
OUT ON SOME OF THESE BIG SPRING RAINS. MAIN CHANGES ONLY APPLY TO
10 PM TO 7 AM.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A STRONG MID-APRIL COLD FRONT HAS NOW SWEPT ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY ON A
BREEZY NORTH WIND. MOST HAVE AVOIDED MEASURABLE PRECIP SO FAR, BUT
AREAS WILL START TO FILL IN WITH MOSTLY LIGHT STRATIFORM SHOWERS
TODAY. WE EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOME
LIGHTNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT
RIPPLES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL, BUT MOST OF THESE DEEPER STORMS WILL BE NON-SEVERE AND MAINLY
POSE AN INTERMITTENT LIGHTNING RISK TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH
THAT RISK PEAKING IN THE EVENING AND EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY CLEARING OUT BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT RELATIVE TO COVERAGE GIVEN THE HIGH-BASED,
COOLER NATURE OF THE RAINS... FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
ABOUT A QUARTER INCH FOR MOST, AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF A 1/2
TO 1 INCH. THOSE MARGINALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT. RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL PREVENT MORE AGGRESSIVE
COOLING, BUT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH
OF THE AUSTIN AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS DROPPING BELOW 25 MPH FOR MOST, BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THAT THE ENHANCED POST-FRONTAL WINDS SETTLE DOWN MORE
FULLY.
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TALE OF TWO HALVES OF THE REGION. FOR
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 OR EAST OF I-37, THE DAY TRENDS
SUNNIER AND DRIER, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S. TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, A RESURGENT FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT FORCES MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP AN OVERCAST IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THOSE
CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF LIGHT RAINS SHOULD INCH
CLOSER TO THE US-281 AND I-35 CORRIDORS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A BROADER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER
TEXAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ABOUT TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY ON TUESDAY, WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
IS MOST FAVORABLY POSITIONED TO DRAG MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE MOST FAVORED IN SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS, ESPECIALLY IF A COASTAL LOW OR TROUGH MATERIALIZES
AS INDICATED IN THE SYNOPTIC GLOBAL MODELS, THOUGH THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES CARRY CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY, OPENING UP
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A HEAVIER RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP DURING THE WEEK WITH THE
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDINESS, STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEL RIO MAY SEE A FEW DAILY RECORD COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STAYING AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THESE COOL ANOMALIES AREN'T AS DRAMATIC TO
THE EAST, BUT ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW LATE-APRIL NORMS. AS
CONDITIONS START TO CLEAR UP WEST-TO-EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. A PAIR OF TROUGHS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY INFLUENCE
CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY TO SATURDAY, POSSIBLY WITH SOME
DRYLINE-RELATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THOSE DISTURBANCES
WON'T REACH THE WESTERN US COAST UNTIL MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN THIS
EVENING, BUT AREAS THAT HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEARBY
MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND SOME RW THAT COULD DROP THE VSBY TO
ABOUT 3-4 SM THE STRONGEST OF CELLS HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS HAIL AS BIG AS PENNIES. AND ONE SUCH CLUSTER COULD IMPACT
AUS IN ABOUT 30-50 MINUTES. LOW CONFIDENCE AMONG THE RAPID REFRESH
SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY APPEAR OVERNIGHT SO WE'LL
WAIT UNTIL THE 03Z UPDATES ARE ISSUED TO CHANGE THE OUTLOOK IF
NEEDED. FOR NOW, WE JUST HAVE WINDS GUSTING LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUED VFR SKIES FOR AUS/DRT, BUT A RETURN TO MVFR FROM 08Z
TO 12Z AT SAT/SSF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 52 75 56 69 / 50 0 20 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 75 54 68 / 60 10 20 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 52 73 54 67 / 80 20 40 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 71 53 64 / 30 0 20 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 66 54 63 / 20 30 50 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 74 54 67 / 40 0 10 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 68 53 62 / 90 20 50 80
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 73 54 68 / 80 10 30 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 74 56 71 / 70 20 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 71 55 66 / 90 20 50 80
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 70 56 66 / 90 30 50 80
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
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