334
FXUS64 KEWX 031035
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND TO START THE WEEK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW (20-40%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY COURTESY OF DRY AIR AND RIDGING
ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT ACCOMPANIED THE INITIAL PUSH
OF COOLER AIR ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST. THAT PUTS US BACK INTO A
WEAK SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN, LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS SOME MORE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING
SUBTROPICAL JET, CARRYING SOME GULF HUMIDITY BACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK IN THE 80S REGIONWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL
SERVE TO GIVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BOOST, WITHOUT MUCH OF AN
INITIAL INFLUENCE ON OUR RAIN-FREE WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE WARMING AND HUMIDIFYING INFLUENCE OF THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE FELT MORE PROMINENTLY BY MIDWEEK AS OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RETURNING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PEAK HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE QUITE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER
90S IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WITH A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (ABOUT
10 TO 40 PERCENT) OF HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F MAINLY SOUTH OF US-57.
A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE, THIS TRANSITION AIDS IN PUSHING THE WEST TEXAS DRY LINE
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON TUESDAY, DIURNALLY VARYING IN POSITION
SOME (WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVANCING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE GFS). THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARBY
UPPER TROUGH COULD ENABLE SOME ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING SOME EAST TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
TOWARDS EAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICAL, THE DRY LINE BRINGS
WITH IT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THAT SAID, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A STRONG CAP AS HINTED BY THE ROUGHLY 12C OR 90TH
PERCENTILE 700MB TEMPERATURES PROJECTED BY MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DRYLINE-RELATED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IF THAT
MATERIALIZES.
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES PAST OUR AREA THURSDAY,
OPENING AN AVENUE FOR A FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE SOURCE AIRMASS DOESN'T APPEAR AS ROBUST COMPARED TO OUR MOST
RECENT COOL PERIOD, BUT SO FAR THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO CLEAR OUT THE HIGHER MIDWEEK HUMIDITY AND
BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY AS WELL (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S). MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AS DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS LOWER THAN OUR RECENT RAINY FRONTS,
BUT THE PRESENCE OF A CUT OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
IS A SIGNAL TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND POST-FRONT THURSDAY ON FRIDAY. THAT CUT-OFF LOW MAY START TO
MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OPPORTUNITY IF IT PERSISTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR ANOTHER DAY. MOSTLY
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS PROBABLY
GOING NO LOWER THAN 7000 FEET. LIGHT WINDS GIVE WAY TO RETURNING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL AREAS BY AROUND 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 60 86 69 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 57 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 80 58 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 62 86 69 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 80 57 85 68 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 80 57 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 59 86 69 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 60 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
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