321
FXUS64 KEWX 041742
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100F.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 80S IN THE WINTER GARDEN
REGION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY ALBEIT PARTLY CIRRUS-LINED SKIES. LOW-
LEVEL WINDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE RESPONSIVE TO PRESSURE
FALLS CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, LEADING TO A
MODERATELY BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS 850MB WINDS STRENGTHEN
TEMPORARILY.
AFTER A DAY'S WORTH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, DEW POINTS WILL BE BACK
ABOVE THE MID-60S COME TUESDAY, KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MUCH
MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 BEFORE SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL OVERLAP WITH THIS MOISTENING, SO
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 95 TO 102 IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SAN ANTONIO AREA. STRONGER TROUGHING ADVANCING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US WILL ALLOW A DRYLINE TO PROPAGATE FARTHER EAST INTO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
RETREATING BACK WEST. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE, BUT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO THE NIGHT COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH EXTRA LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE PLATEAU ON THE RETREATING DRYLINE. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW, WITH LESS THAN 20% POPS, BUT A STORM IN THAT
ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER EASTWARD JOG WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHES. BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 AND CLOSER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, BUT
CAPPING IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOWER SIDE AND
SHOULD FAVOR MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. ASIDE FROM THOSE LOW CHANCES,
EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE 90S FOR
MOST WITH THE MOST HUMID SPOTS NEAR 100.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT CUTS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DRY LINE WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING AN ARRIVAL SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT AIR WILL SHOVE AWAY THE MIDWEEK WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY, BRINGING HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
WHEN IT ARRIVES, BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
UNCERTAIN AND ARE LARGELY TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF THAT
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES FASTER (SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE PREVIOUS 12Z
ECMWF), THAT WOULD SHIFT RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A SLOWER
FRONT (SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS) COULD DELAY RAINS, POTENTIALLY
KEEPING THAT EPISODE DISTINCT FROM THE FRONTAL AIRMASS ITSELF.
ENSEMBLES DIP THEIR TOES IN BOTH OUTCOMES, SO CURRENT ENSEMBLE
FIELDS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND HAVE RAIN CHANCES SMEARED GENERALLY
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITHOUT MUCH OF A FAVORED OUTCOME AT
THE MOMENT. WE SHOULD GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON OUR LATE WEEK IN THE
COMING DAYS, BUT FOR NOW, A BROAD AND LOW CHANCES (MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS OPPOSED TO ENVIRONMENTAL FAVORABILITY) FOR
RAIN ARE DEPICTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AMID THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING HAVE HELD ON QUITE A BIT LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED, THOUGH THEY SHOULD EITHER SCATTER OR LIFT TO AROUND 3.5-
4KFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WIND WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, ONLY BECOMING LIGHTER OUT
WEST, INCLUDING KDRT, AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 72 88 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 70 86 / 0 0 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 72 87 / 0 0 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 72 89 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 92 73 89 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 74 90 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...27
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