707
FXUS64 KEWX 041813
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
113 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW (20-40%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN STREAMING INTO THE AREA
HELPING TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISPERSE AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING ENSUES AND WINDS REMAIN BREEZY. FOR TONIGHT
EXPECT A PRETTY MILD NIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS STANDARDS AS MANY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND
BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WE RAMP UP A FEW DEGREES MORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY SO IT WILL FEEL MUCH WARMER AND
MUGGIER OUT THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH THE LOW 90S NORTH WITH MID 90S SOUTH PUSHING HEAT INDEX
VALUES OR THE "FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S. DEFINITELY TAKE BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER IF OUTSIDE.
A DEEP TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S IS PROGGED TO PUSH
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY PUSHING THE DRYLINE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING
BACK WEST. THERE ARE LOW (10-15%)CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE AREAS HOWEVER WE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY CAPPED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AND THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO ERODE THE CAP BY TUESDAY EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS SOME LARGE
HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
AS SHORT TERM MODELS USUALLY STRUGGLE WITH THESE SMALL SCALE
FEATURES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH MOST TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WE COULD SEE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES ALL THE WAY TO
THE THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY AS
CAPPING ONCE AGAIN TAKES HOLD. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IS WHEN MANY
AREAS COULD SEE SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS AS A COLD
FRONT COMES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD GIVE
BETTER FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. BEHIND THIS FRONT
TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
DETAILS BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THIS IS
DUE LARGELY IN PART TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
THE DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODELS EACH HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH THE
EURO SHOWING A CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE LOW IN TACT
AND SPREADS PIECES OF ENERGY RIPPLING TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY MOVES ACROSS TX. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD FAVOR MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN WHEREAS THE EURO WOULD
BE A MORE QUICK HITTING RAIN EVENT AND THUS LEAVING THE WEEKEND
DRY. WE CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH
LEAVES CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD ALL THE
WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK AS DETAILS AND RAIN
CHANCES HOPEFULLY BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING HAVE HELD ON QUITE A BIT LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED, THOUGH THEY SHOULD EITHER SCATTER OR LIFT TO AROUND 3.5-
4KFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WIND WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, ONLY BECOMING LIGHTER OUT
WEST, INCLUDING KDRT, AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 72 88 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 70 86 / 0 0 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 72 87 / 0 0 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 72 89 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 92 73 89 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 74 90 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
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