126
FXUS64 KEWX 051102
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
602 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
DEW POINTS ARE STEADILY ON THE RISE AS HUMID GULF AIR CONTINUES
TO STREAM IN ON A SOUTHERLY WIND. THE EXTRA MOISTURE IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED, BRINGING A MUCH MORE MILD MORNING TODAY.
ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT, HILL COUNTRY, RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH THIS ARRIVING MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD DISPERSE WITH DAYTIME
MIXING, BUT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY MORE
STUBBORN CLOUDS ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT FASTEST
(LIKELY CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE) WILL QUICKLY MIX DOWN A LOBE OF
MEXICAN PLATEAU AIR ALOFT WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE WARMTH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SLOSHING OVER OUR REGION. THIS AIR IS FORECAST TO LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD HIGHS ABOVE THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, BUT
FOR THE SUNNIER SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND WINTER GARDEN
REGION THOSE HIGHS COULD SPIKE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
GIVEN THE EXTRA HUMIDITY, SUNNIER SKIES COULD HELP BRING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
US-90.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
STRONG CAPPING MAKES SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY UNLIKELY DURING THE DAY
AND KEEPS MOST AREAS DRY. HOWEVER, A LATE-ARRIVING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE PLATEAU
PAST MIDNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE
ISOLATED AT BEST, AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW (ABOUT 20%
AT MOST). HOWEVER, A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL.
THE DRYLINE MAKES ANOTHER EASTWARD SURGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S ARE FORECAST, BUT IF THE DRYLINE MOVES PAST THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT THAT COULD ENHANCE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG I-35. THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WEDNESDAY IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA. DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THIS
FRONT COULD BE DRAGGING ITS FEET AS IT REACHES THE AREA, LEADING TO
AMPLE SPREAD AMONG MODELS WITH REGARD TO ITS POSITION AND TIMING.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR NOW STILL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY EVENING
TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME MODELS,
PARTICULARLY THE NAM/NAM NEST, BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THE LACKADAISICALLY DIRECTED
MOTION OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT THE ACCOMPANYING SHIFT TO COOLER
AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WON'T BE ESPECIALLY INTENSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN/NEAR THE AUSTIN AREA WHEN THE
FRONT CONTACTS THE DRYLINE. DUE TO STRONG CAPPING, THESE CHANCES ARE
LOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT), BUT STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT
IMPLICATE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK (MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL) SHOULD A
STORM DEVELOP. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF
HAZE IN THE SW GULF FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING, WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND BOLSTER THE STRENGTH OF CAPPING IN A MANNER
NOT WELL CAPTURED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH THE
CURRENT MODEL BLEND PROJECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S THURSDAY WITH
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR COLD AIR ADVECTION LASTING VERY LONG, SO
WE'LL LIKELY REVERSE COURSE AND REENTER A WARMING TREND PROMPTLY,
RETURNING TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIR PROVIDED BY THE FRONT PROVIDES A RAMP FOR MOIST FLOW
TO RISE ATOP THE DENSER AIR AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH
COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THE SUBSEQUENT DAYS. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GENERALLY DIFFLUENT OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH, SO THAT PERIOD IS
FAVORED FOR SOME RAIN. THE TIMING OF THOSE RAINS HINGES HEAVILY ON
WHEN THE TROUGH EJECTS EAST AND MOVES OVER OUR AREA. AS NOTED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, AN EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD FOCUS RAIN CHANCES
CLOSER TO THURSDAY AND KEEP THE WEEKEND DRIER, WHILE A LATER ARRIVAL
WOULD TEMPORALLY BROADEN CHANCES WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MAIN
EVENT CLOSER TO FRIDAY. RECENT ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSES SHOW A VERY
SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER OUTCOME, BUT ONLY BY A SMALL
MARGIN. THE TIMING OF THE PRIMARY RAINS COULD INFLUENCE THE NATURE
OF THE STORMS, WITH LATER TIMING MORE LIKELY TO BE SURFACE-BASED
RATHER THAN ELEVATED. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK WITH THE FORECAST AS
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RAIN CHANCES COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE A SECOND COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE IN THE UPPER-
LEVELS, WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. THIS POTENTIAL
PATTERN IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC 6-10 OUTLOOK, WHICH INDICATES A 40
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE RUNNING 25-35 KNOTS AND THAT HAS HELPED
KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS MIXED ENOUGH TO WHERE MOST CIGS ARE STUCK IN
MVFR. SAT IS CURRENTLY IFR AND SSF WAS ALLOCATED TO HAVE A BRIEF
IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE REST OF THE SITES SHOULD STAY MVFR. A
NOMINAL HOUR OF MVFR IS ALLOCATED FOR DRT, BUT IT'S TOO HARD TO
SEE THROUGH THE STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS ON WHERE THE PROGRESS OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS HAS REACHED. MIXING OUT TO VFR SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND NOON AND SOME GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ARE LISTED FOR
AUS/SAT. TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF A FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX COULD
LIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND THEREFORE SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
CONVECTION TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT CURRENTLY POPS FOR THEN ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 25 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 74 88 61 / 0 10 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 74 88 63 / 0 10 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 88 62 / 0 0 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 86 57 / 0 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 72 93 66 / 0 20 0 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 86 60 / 0 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 89 64 / 0 10 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 88 63 / 0 0 30 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 74 87 64 / 0 0 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 74 88 65 / 0 10 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 89 66 / 0 10 10 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page