445
FXUS64 KEWX 051755
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
DEW POINTS ARE STEADILY ON THE RISE AS HUMID GULF AIR CONTINUES
TO STREAM IN ON A SOUTHERLY WIND. THE EXTRA MOISTURE IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED, BRINGING A MUCH MORE MILD MORNING TODAY.
ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT, HILL COUNTRY, RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH THIS ARRIVING MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD DISPERSE WITH DAYTIME
MIXING, BUT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY MORE
STUBBORN CLOUDS ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT FASTEST
(LIKELY CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE) WILL QUICKLY MIX DOWN A LOBE OF
MEXICAN PLATEAU AIR ALOFT WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE WARMTH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SLOSHING OVER OUR REGION. THIS AIR IS FORECAST TO LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD HIGHS ABOVE THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, BUT
FOR THE SUNNIER SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND WINTER GARDEN
REGION THOSE HIGHS COULD SPIKE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
GIVEN THE EXTRA HUMIDITY, SUNNIER SKIES COULD HELP BRING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
US-90.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
STRONG CAPPING MAKES SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY UNLIKELY DURING THE DAY
AND KEEPS MOST AREAS DRY. HOWEVER, A LATE-ARRIVING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE PLATEAU
PAST MIDNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE
ISOLATED AT BEST, AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW (ABOUT 20%
AT MOST). HOWEVER, A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL.
THE DRYLINE MAKES ANOTHER EASTWARD SURGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S ARE FORECAST, BUT IF THE DRYLINE MOVES PAST THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT THAT COULD ENHANCE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG I-35. THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WEDNESDAY IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA. DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THIS
FRONT COULD BE DRAGGING ITS FEET AS IT REACHES THE AREA, LEADING TO
AMPLE SPREAD AMONG MODELS WITH REGARD TO ITS POSITION AND TIMING.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR NOW STILL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY EVENING
TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME MODELS,
PARTICULARLY THE NAM/NAM NEST, BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THE LACKADAISICALLY DIRECTED
MOTION OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT THE ACCOMPANYING SHIFT TO COOLER
AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WON'T BE ESPECIALLY INTENSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN/NEAR THE AUSTIN AREA WHEN THE
FRONT CONTACTS THE DRYLINE. DUE TO STRONG CAPPING, THESE CHANCES ARE
LOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT), BUT STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT
IMPLICATE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK (MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL) SHOULD A
STORM DEVELOP. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF
HAZE IN THE SW GULF FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING, WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND BOLSTER THE STRENGTH OF CAPPING IN A MANNER
NOT WELL CAPTURED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH THE
CURRENT MODEL BLEND PROJECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S THURSDAY WITH
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR COLD AIR ADVECTION LASTING VERY LONG, SO
WE'LL LIKELY REVERSE COURSE AND REENTER A WARMING TREND PROMPTLY,
RETURNING TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIR PROVIDED BY THE FRONT PROVIDES A RAMP FOR MOIST FLOW
TO RISE ATOP THE DENSER AIR AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH
COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THE SUBSEQUENT DAYS. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GENERALLY DIFFLUENT OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH, SO THAT PERIOD IS
FAVORED FOR SOME RAIN. THE TIMING OF THOSE RAINS HINGES HEAVILY ON
WHEN THE TROUGH EJECTS EAST AND MOVES OVER OUR AREA. AS NOTED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, AN EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD FOCUS RAIN CHANCES
CLOSER TO THURSDAY AND KEEP THE WEEKEND DRIER, WHILE A LATER ARRIVAL
WOULD TEMPORALLY BROADEN CHANCES WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MAIN
EVENT CLOSER TO FRIDAY. RECENT ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSES SHOW A VERY
SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER OUTCOME, BUT ONLY BY A SMALL
MARGIN. THE TIMING OF THE PRIMARY RAINS COULD INFLUENCE THE NATURE
OF THE STORMS, WITH LATER TIMING MORE LIKELY TO BE SURFACE-BASED
RATHER THAN ELEVATED. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK WITH THE FORECAST AS
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RAIN CHANCES COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE A SECOND COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE IN THE UPPER-
LEVELS, WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. THIS POTENTIAL
PATTERN IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC 6-10 OUTLOOK, WHICH INDICATES A 40
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SCATTER AND LIFT THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED AROUND 20-21Z AT I-35 TERMINALS. IN THE
WEST AT KDRT, WIND WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHERLY WIND PERSISTS INTO TOMORROW AT OR
BELOW 12 KNOTS. WITH SOME LIGHTER WIND TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT, MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MODELS
BRINGING LIFR CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL
COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS UPDATE, DID NOT GO THAT LOW YET
AND KEPT IFR CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE HILL COUNTRY WHICH COULD
IMPACT KSAT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW CEILINGS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 87 61 71 / 10 30 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 85 62 72 / 10 20 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 61 73 / 0 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 57 69 / 20 30 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 93 66 76 / 20 0 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 60 71 / 10 30 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 65 74 / 10 10 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 86 62 72 / 0 20 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 86 64 74 / 0 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 87 64 74 / 0 10 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 87 66 74 / 0 10 20 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page