257
FXUS64 KEWX 061732
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY AS SEVERE STORM RISK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON HAD DIMINISHED. NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND AFD
DISCUSSION WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES
OR SO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A RETREATING
DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING, A FEW STORMS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. THEY WOULD PRIMARILY POSE A LARGE HAIL RISK IF A STORM
CAN FORM. OTHERWISE, INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING NORTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
DRIZZLE OR MIST AS LOW CLOUDS AND STAGNANT AIR SETS UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A DRYLINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, BUT CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG, SO THE
THREAT FOR STORMS IS LOW BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT OVER WILLIAMSON, LEE, PORTIONS
OF FAYETTE, AND NORTHERN BASTROP. WE'LL CARRY A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR, BUT THE RISK IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. MOST AREAS WON'T
SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
MORE OF ISENTROPIC TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
AS SOME OF OUR MORE RECENT RAIN EVENTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FILTERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AND 70S BUT THE COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. IN ANY
MATTER, WE'LL TAKE IT, ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE LESS COMMON IN THE MONTH OF MAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS WHEN THINGS START TO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING
AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUE
WITH THIS SETUP, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT, MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE, BUT IN TERMS OF ANY SPECIFIC DAY HAVING BETTER ODDS
AT RAIN, IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS DISTANCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTS INTO AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. EARLIER SEVERE
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED, BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE. FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SPREAD WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE, PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDED PROB30 FOR -TSRA
AT KDRT FROM 10Z TO 16Z THURSDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE NORTH TO EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 74 64 79 / 0 10 20 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 74 64 79 / 0 10 20 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 74 64 79 / 0 20 30 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 70 60 77 / 0 10 20 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 74 65 83 / 20 30 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 72 61 78 / 0 10 10 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 75 65 79 / 0 20 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 74 64 79 / 0 20 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 74 66 78 / 10 10 20 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 75 66 80 / 0 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 75 66 80 / 0 20 30 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...62
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