648
FXUS64 KEWX 062344
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE HOWEVER
MANY AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN END OF THE WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE COLD FRONT
ENDED UP COMING IN MUCH FASTER THIS MORNING. AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING THE FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN I-10 TO
HONDO TO DEL RIO LINE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL STAY
MUCH COOLER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 70S
WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUNCH INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE FASTER PROGRESSION WE HAVE REDUCED POPS
EXTENSIVELY AS MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRED THIS MORNING HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LULL IN CONVECTION UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SPEAKING OF TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S NORTH WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION FIRING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SLIDING EASTWARD WITH TIME INTO OUR AREA IN
THE EARLY TO LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH MAINLY LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS AN IMPULSE EJECTING OFF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY
EASTWARD. FOR THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE A DRIER DAY AS WE REMAIN
BETWEEN IMPULSES COMING OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. HIGHS SHOULD
ALSO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH MANY REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WE WONT
DROP MUCH AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY THICK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH MOST STAYING IN THE 60S.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES, GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THEN A FEW DAYS AGO WITH BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS SHOWING THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES ACROSS OUR AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WITH BOTH THE EURO AND GFS COMING INTO
AGREEMENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX
CONTINUES SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS IS TIMING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER WITH
ACTIVITY FIRING OFF LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHEREAS THE EURO HAS A
FASTER SOLUTION WITH ACTIVITY FIRING OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS
HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE EURO PLAYING
CATCHUP, SO AM LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WHICH
FAVORS MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH IT'S STILL
A BIT TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY, STORM
CHANCES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE WEEKEND NOW AS WE REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK AS DETAILS
AND RAIN CHANCES HOPEFULLY BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
STILL SOME MVFR CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA, BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS. THERE ARE LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT DRT OVERNIGHT AND IN
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
AIRPORTS. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 74 64 79 / 0 10 20 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 74 64 79 / 0 10 20 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 74 64 79 / 0 20 30 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 70 60 77 / 0 10 20 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 74 65 83 / 20 30 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 72 61 78 / 0 10 10 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 75 65 79 / 0 20 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 74 64 79 / 0 20 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 74 66 78 / 10 10 20 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 75 66 80 / 0 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 75 66 80 / 0 20 30 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page