811
FXUS64 KEWX 070547
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE HOWEVER
MANY AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE LATEST GOES 19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA OF CALIFORNIA, ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE, FLOW IS MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE SDBS AND SENDING THEM EAST
INTO MAVERICK COUNTY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY
IF IT DOES MATERIALIZE WILL BE CONFINED THE THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND NOT WORK FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS, THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO BREAK TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LATEST
00Z SUITE OF CAMS IS NOT ENTIRELY PROMISING FOR RAIN, BUT GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AND THE AI MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. A MID-LEVEL
LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THIS REASON, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT ARE A BIT MORE SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIFTS NORTH OVER THE ARKLATEX BY LATE IN
THE DAY. RAIN AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE THE
THREAT LIKELY PUSHES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A POCKET OF CONVECTION IS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RES/RAPID
REFRESH MODEL RUNS TO FORM IN THE 10-13Z RANGE NEAR DRT. THE HRRR
CARRIES THIS PRECIP OVER INTO THE SAT/SSF AREA BUT WE'LL HOLD OFF
UNTIL WE SEE WHERE THE FIRST CELLS INITIATE. SOME LOW CIGS ARE IN
THE REGION, BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO DISRUPT
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. WED ASSUME MOST AREAS WILL BE MVFR AT
DAYBREAK AND MOST AREAS TO RETURN TO VFR SKIES BY AROUND 22Z OR
SO. WE'D EXPECT TO SEE MORE IFR CIGS TONIGHT THAN WE EXPECT TO
SEE THIS MORNING, AS THE FRONTAL INVERSION HIGH LOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 63 79 67 / 10 10 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 64 79 68 / 10 10 50 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 64 79 67 / 10 10 50 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 59 76 65 / 10 10 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 65 83 66 / 40 10 10 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 61 77 66 / 10 10 50 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 65 80 67 / 20 10 20 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 64 79 67 / 10 10 50 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 66 79 68 / 10 10 60 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 66 80 68 / 10 10 40 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 66 80 68 / 10 10 40 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...18
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