621
FXUS64 KEWX 072339
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEARS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR.
- A COLD FRONT AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
KEEP EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. EARLIER UPDATES WERE MADE TO LOWER HIGHS FOR TODAY AND WE
MAY OPT FOR ANOTHER UPDATE BASED ON CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN CASE A STRONG STORM SURVIVES LONG
ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW IN THIS, BUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY FOR MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
FOR FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
SPREAD BACK WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. AS OF NOW, WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM FARTHER NORTH OF THIS
AREA. IN ADDITION, WE DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. A NORTHWARD RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP INTO THE 1.5" - NEAR 2" RANGE LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IF STRONG TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS FORM, INCREASED RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE FRONT
AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO ALONG THE BOUNDARY, DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THAT FAR
OUT IN TIME. HIGHS TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 80S BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND IN STORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING IN AT DRT AND, CEILINGS WILL STAY AT BEST
MVFR UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THAT TIME THEY WILL BE IFR.
THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS ARE VFR, BUT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. IN SAN ANTONIO CEILINGS WILL
DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY.
AT ALL SITES THERE WILL BE AROUND 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IF ANY CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS AN AIRPORT RAIN COULD DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR. THERE WILL
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS FRIDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 79 67 85 / 10 30 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 79 68 85 / 10 30 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 79 67 85 / 0 30 60 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 77 64 84 / 10 30 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 83 66 87 / 10 20 50 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 61 78 66 84 / 10 40 60 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 79 67 85 / 0 20 60 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 79 67 85 / 10 30 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 77 68 83 / 0 40 60 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 80 68 86 / 0 20 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 80 68 85 / 0 20 70 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...05
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