014
FXUS64 KEWX 080515
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1215 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR.
- A COLD FRONT AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A CLOSED LOW AT 500MB CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EAST
TODAY INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LATEST HREF MEMBERS SHOW THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE AND
PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 AND WEST OF I-37. THIS IS
WHERE THE BULK OF HI-RES GUIDANCE IS FAVORING STORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. ELSEWHERE, WE WILL CARRY LOW END POPS FROM 12Z-18Z ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR SOME MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON WOULD POSE A RISK FOR
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, BUT LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN
MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
SOME LINGERING ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY, BUT THE
AFTERNOON ACTUALLY COULD BE QUIET FOR MOST AREAS, PARTICULARLY WEST
OF I-35. WE SHOULD ACTUALLY GET SOME DECENT BREAKS IN CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT, THIS TIME A WEAKER ONE, WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THINGS SHOULD START TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAMPS UP. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S, ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL. TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAY AS CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHT
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNRISE. SOME AREAS OF
BR OR -DZ ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AREAS EAST THIS
MORNING, THEN LOW CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SEEN DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THESE LOW PROBABILITIES, HAVE EXCLUDED
THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ONLY
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KAUS
AS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR I-35 TERMINALS, NEWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 69 86 70 / 20 30 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 70 86 69 / 20 30 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 69 86 68 / 20 30 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 66 85 67 / 20 20 30 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 67 87 69 / 20 30 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 68 85 68 / 20 20 40 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 69 85 68 / 20 30 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 80 69 86 69 / 20 30 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 70 84 69 / 30 40 40 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 70 86 70 / 20 30 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 71 86 70 / 20 40 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27
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