004
FXUS64 KEWX 081721
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR.
- A COLD FRONT AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A CLOSED LOW AT 500MB CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EAST
TODAY INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LATEST HREF MEMBERS SHOW THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE AND
PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 AND WEST OF I-37. THIS IS
WHERE THE BULK OF HI-RES GUIDANCE IS FAVORING STORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. ELSEWHERE, WE WILL CARRY LOW END POPS FROM 12Z-18Z ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR SOME MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON WOULD POSE A RISK FOR
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, BUT LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN
MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
SOME LINGERING ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY, BUT THE
AFTERNOON ACTUALLY COULD BE QUIET FOR MOST AREAS, PARTICULARLY WEST
OF I-35. WE SHOULD ACTUALLY GET SOME DECENT BREAKS IN CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT, THIS TIME A WEAKER ONE, WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THINGS SHOULD START TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAMPS UP. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S, ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL. TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAY AS CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHT
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY RAIN OR STORMS TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
TAFS BUT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER WITH NO CATEGORY IMPACTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ANY STORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN LOWER INTO THE
MVFR TO IFR RANGE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FROM
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE TO REMAIN
LIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 KT OR LESS WITH VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS OCCURRING AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 88 70 91 / 10 10 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 87 70 91 / 20 20 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 68 91 / 20 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 68 90 / 10 10 0 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 87 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 69 90 / 10 10 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 86 68 91 / 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 69 91 / 20 20 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 85 70 89 / 30 40 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 87 70 91 / 20 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 87 70 92 / 20 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...62
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