799
FXUS64 KEWX 081859
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
159 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. TAKING A LOOK
AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED
LOW CLOUDS ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH CLOUDS ALSO
EXTENDING FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. WE HAVE SEEN SOME THINNING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEAR
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE,
DESTABILIZATION WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MEXICO, WITH CONVECTION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH TIME. AT
THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THE CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WOULD BE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90, WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
LIKELY BEING THE FAVORED LOCATION. WHILE SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SIGNALS FOR CONVECTION, SUSPECT THERE IS
STILL A LOW-END CHANCE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATE EVENING AS
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE
HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN, THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE MENTIONED AREAS.
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME. SUSPECT THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
THIS WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS HIGHER INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS, THIS AREA WOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
80S TO THE MID 90S. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT SET
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WE STILL
EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE FRONT
AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE REGION. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
EASE BACK INTO THE 80S. WHILE WE ARE SHOWING A DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEARS WATCHING AND WE MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING.
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY RAIN OR STORMS TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
TAFS BUT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER WITH NO CATEGORY IMPACTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ANY STORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN LOWER INTO THE
MVFR TO IFR RANGE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FROM
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE TO REMAIN
LIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 KT OR LESS WITH VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS OCCURRING AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 88 70 91 / 10 10 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 87 70 91 / 20 20 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 68 91 / 20 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 68 90 / 10 10 0 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 87 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 69 90 / 10 10 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 86 68 91 / 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 69 91 / 20 20 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 85 70 89 / 30 40 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 87 70 91 / 20 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 87 70 92 / 20 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...62
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