757
FXUS64 KEWX 091722
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY.
- LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR AND AROUND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE LEFT
BEHIND A PATCHWORK OF SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO LIFT HAVE MOSTLY LEFT THE REGION,
SOMEWHAT COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE SUBTLE PRESENCE OF
THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY LOWER-PROBABILITY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED POPUP SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING WITH THE
BEST CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE WIND SHEAR IS
LOW AND WILL PREVENT MORE ORGANIZED OR PROLONGED STORMS, THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT
STRONGER LOCALIZED GUSTS FROM THE SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS, AND IN
FACT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST AMPLE
AMOUNTS OF DOWNDRAFT INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG
DCAPE. MOST SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY, BUT IT COULD BE A RAINY AND
WINDY FEW MINUTES FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
ANY RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD FADE OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PATCHY MISTINESS OR LIGHT FOG
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35
CORRIDOR. MOST OF SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY AND
SUNNIER SIDE AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT COURSES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS PUSHING INTO THE
MID-90S. WHILE DRIER AND SUNNY WEATHER PREVAILS OVER OUR AREA, A
TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES, ACCOMPANYING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
VAL VERDE COUNTY LATE- AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SUNDAY, A
GREATER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THEY DO VARY SLIGHTLY IN TIMING, THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HI- RES MODELS IN SHOWING A WIDESPREAD LINE
OF STORMS PUSHING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THIS PUTATIVE
LINE OF STORMS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
LARGE HAIL, WITH A GENERAL SHIFT TOWARDS WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT
HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LINE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS A LEVEL 2 OF 4 (SLIGHT) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY,
AND AUSTIN AREA, WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 4 (MARGINAL) RISK EXTENDING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING QUICKLY, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5-1 INCH OF
RAIN AND POCKETS OF 2-4 INCHES FROM HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK LOOKS
QUIETER. THE TROUGH HELPING TO BRING SUNDAY NIGHT'S STORMS AND
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE VACATING OUR AREA MONDAY
MORNING, WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE MOVING OVER OUR AREA FROM THE SW
US AND HOLDING STEADY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NORTH OF I-10 AND MID 80S
SOUTH. A WARMING TREND SHOULD CARRY THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
STAYS OVERHEAD, BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST BY ABOUT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE STEADILY CLIMBING
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY BLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE NOTCHES UP
DEW POINTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THIS MORNING'S VERY LOW CEILINGS, FOG, AND SOUPY CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED. EXPECT SCATTERED TO SKY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT AREAL EXTENT AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS FAR TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO THE TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT MAY STAY JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR, AND THE I-35 TAF SITES. WITH THAT, ELECTED TO
INSERT A TEMPO PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z FOR SCT LOW CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITIES THAT MAY DIP TO AROUND 6SM AT THOSE SITES. ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT, CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 91 67 81 / 10 0 90 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 91 67 81 / 10 0 90 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 67 82 / 10 0 80 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 64 77 / 10 10 90 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 94 68 85 / 0 0 50 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 66 79 / 10 10 90 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 66 84 / 0 0 80 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 66 82 / 10 0 90 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 90 68 81 / 10 0 80 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 92 67 84 / 10 0 90 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 68 84 / 0 0 80 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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