646
FXUS64 KEWX 241654
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE COVERAGE IN THE AREA WITH MOST
STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN MODEL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY GIVEN STORM, BUT SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT, AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
ALOFT, BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WAS NOTED WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
ROUND OF STORMS WORKING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
LATER THIS EVENING, BUT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT LARGE SCALE COVERAGE.
WITH REGARD TO SUNDAY, CAMS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SOME
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S FAR FROM A CERTAINTY. PWATS HAVE TRENDED
LOWER IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN ANY
MATTER, THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING IS STILL
THERE GIVEN SATURATED SOILS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUNDAY. MEMORIAL
DAY ITSELF HAS TRENDED DRIER, BUT WILL STILL CARRY SOME LOW END POPS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE EVENT OF A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
TUESDAY AND BEYOND GET INTERESTING AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES INCLUDING NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIPPING INTO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SPARKING STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LREF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WITHIN DESI INDICATES PWATS ON AVERAGE OF 1.5-1.8" OVER
MOST OF THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS, IN
ADDITION TO ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE THREAT
FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WPC PLACES PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK (SLIGHT) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, OUR PATTERN MAY REMAIN ACTIVE, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MUCH BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ALL I-35 TAF SITES
REMAINING IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO VRB AT TIMES BEFORE SWITCHING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD AT THIS TIME. FOR KDRT MFVR CIGS CURRENTLY SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR AS THIS CLOUD DECK EVENTUALLY ERODES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 70 89 / 10 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 91 70 89 / 10 20 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 69 87 / 10 20 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 67 86 / 20 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 73 89 / 10 0 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 69 88 / 10 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 70 86 / 10 0 0 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 69 88 / 0 20 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 89 70 88 / 0 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 71 88 / 0 10 0 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...CJM
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