132
FXUS64 KEWX 251740
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT, PRIMARILY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT
CONTINUE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW, THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THESE OTHER STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST CAMS
ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THESE STORMS TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE COULD MAINTAIN SOME
INTENSITY AS THEY SAG SOUTH, BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN THEM WITH TIME.
MEMORIAL DAY WILL FEATURE WARM CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN, WITH AN SHOT
AT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AS REMNANT MCV SAGS SOUTH OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z RRFS
AND HRRR ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALONG WITH THE NSSL WRF,
ARW, FV3, AND NAM 3KM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MIDDLE 90S UNDER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF ONE MORE STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED LIFT REGION-WIDE ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN PWATS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MORE INFORMATION ON THIS STORM SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
BELOW, INCLUDING TIMING OF STORMS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACTIVE AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY, THEN SLIDE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE REST OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, HOWEVER, STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS GIVEN STEEP ML LAPSE RATES, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND
ADEQUATE LIFT. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA FOR
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS, THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WPC PLACES A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK (SLIGHT)
FOR BASICALLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SETTLE
DOWN FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF
BKN CLOUDS AT 3KFT COULD LINGER ANOTHER HOUR. DID INCLUDE A PROB30
GROUP WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR KAUS BETWEEN 22-02Z,
THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. BESIDES IN THE PRESENCE OF
ANY STORMS, WIND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED ONLY SCT LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AROUND WHEN THEY FORMED THIS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS AROUND KDRT IN THE MORNING, AND POSSIBLY SOME
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS NEAR I-35 TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 89 72 83 / 20 0 80 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 89 72 83 / 20 0 80 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 70 82 / 10 10 90 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 69 81 / 20 10 70 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 88 70 89 / 10 30 70 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 70 81 / 20 0 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 86 69 83 / 0 20 90 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 88 71 82 / 10 10 90 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 89 72 81 / 10 0 70 90
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 88 71 83 / 0 10 90 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 88 71 83 / 0 10 90 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27
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