731
FXUS64 KEWX 261056
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR TO
JUNE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRAZOS VALLEY. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE, OUT WEST, MODEL CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING, ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE,
FROM THE HRRR, TO THE RRFS, AND THE FV3/NSSL WRF AGREE THAT STORMS
ORGANIZE OUT WEST OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS 19Z, THEN MARCH EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX OR MCS MOVES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SPC HAS A LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF US-281 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT, WPC PLACES THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION WITHIN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DESPITE STORM MOVEMENT LIKELY BEING RATHER
PROGRESSIVE, SATURATED SOILS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RUNOFF THAN BE ABSORBED. ANY STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
NEAR OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRIER DAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOTED
ON THE GFS AND ECMWF, BUT THE DRY FORECAST IS SHORT-LIVED. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY JUNE AS A STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK AT 300MB WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFT AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SPREADS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
RIDGING TO RETURN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE. FOR NOW,
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS RATHER LOW, SO STAY TUNED FOR A
CONTINUED FINE TUNING OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING SSF, WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SHOWS A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND AND WITH MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF DRT, WILL NOT
MENTION ANY SHRA OR TSRA THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AND MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING HAVE BEEN MADE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 71 84 71 / 20 80 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 71 84 72 / 20 80 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 84 70 / 20 80 60 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 82 69 / 20 80 50 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 69 89 72 / 60 60 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 82 70 / 10 80 60 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 84 70 / 50 70 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 84 71 / 20 80 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 72 82 71 / 10 80 80 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 71 84 72 / 30 80 50 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 70 84 72 / 30 90 60 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...PLATT
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