434
FXUS64 KEWX 261733
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR TO
JUNE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS,
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE AUSTIN
AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
8 AM WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
WITH UP TO 5 INCHES WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS. IN ADDITION, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A MORE DETAIL
FORECAST DISCUSSION COMES OUT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRAZOS VALLEY. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE, OUT WEST, MODEL CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING, ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE,
FROM THE HRRR, TO THE RRFS, AND THE FV3/NSSL WRF AGREE THAT STORMS
ORGANIZE OUT WEST OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS 19Z, THEN MARCH EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX OR MCS MOVES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SPC HAS A LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF US-281 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT, WPC PLACES THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION WITHIN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DESPITE STORM MOVEMENT LIKELY BEING RATHER
PROGRESSIVE, SATURATED SOILS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RUNOFF THAN BE ABSORBED. ANY STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
NEAR OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRIER DAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOTED
ON THE GFS AND ECMWF, BUT THE DRY FORECAST IS SHORT-LIVED. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY JUNE AS A STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK AT 300MB WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFT AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SPREADS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
RIDGING TO RETURN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE. FOR NOW,
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS RATHER LOW, SO STAY TUNED FOR A
CONTINUED FINE TUNING OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WHILE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LINE DENOTED MAINLY BY PROB30
GROUPS, THE EXPECTED TIMING FOR A LINE OF STORMS WAS USED FOR TEMPO
GROUPS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SEEN BEHIND
THIS LINE OF STORMS AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 84 70 88 / 80 50 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 84 71 88 / 90 60 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 84 69 88 / 90 50 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 81 68 85 / 80 50 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 71 91 / 70 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 82 69 86 / 80 50 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 83 69 87 / 80 50 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 84 70 88 / 90 50 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 82 70 87 / 80 60 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 84 71 88 / 90 40 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 84 71 88 / 90 40 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...27
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