896
FXUS64 KEWX 270717
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
217 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO EAST TODAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WITHIN THE PAST UPDATE. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL MONITORING
FOR A SECONDARY COMPLEX INTO THIS MORNING THAT WILL IMPACT SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS COULD CLIP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, EXPECT FOR THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM
THIS COMPLEX TO OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR COUNTY REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA, AND WE HAVE
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN BEHIND THIS LINE, AND WE STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. WE WILL MOST LIKELY CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH
WHEN THESE WARNINGS EXPIRE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CA/NV WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER TEXAS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AND A WEAK
RIDGE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL KEEP PW ABOVE 1.25" AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS, BUT WE THINK MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TX FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME
NOTHING LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED, STRONG, OR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING. WE
WILL SEE WHAT LATER FORECASTS SHOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
CONVECTION WITH LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER AT AUS THROUGH ROUGHLY 07Z,
WITH THE REMAINDER OF OUR TAF SITES REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLEARING BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS INTACT
AT ALL TAF SITES, ALONG WITH SOME BR ALONG I-35. VFR RETURNS BY LATE
MORNING AS CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 71 88 72 / 20 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 71 88 73 / 20 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 88 71 / 20 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 86 70 / 20 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 71 91 74 / 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 86 71 / 30 20 20 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 70 86 72 / 10 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 70 88 72 / 20 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 70 87 72 / 40 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 72 88 73 / 30 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 72 88 73 / 30 10 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...PLATT
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