603
FXUS64 KEWX 280616
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
116 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER THROUGH END OF WORKWEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN TRENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
25 TO 50 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONSHORE FLOW
REMAINS RATHER LIGHT AND HELPS TO KEEP DEW POINTS FROM NOT BECOMING
TOO OVERLY HUMID. HOWEVER, WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED
GROUNDS, SHALLOW PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP BOTH THIS MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. SKIES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND
STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT ADVANCES TOWARDS OR INTO
RURAL WEST-NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. NO RAIN WILL
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEASONABLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND MORNING LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE LOCAL RIDGING FLATTENS THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOWS MORE OF A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ASSOCIATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE
OMEGA BLOCK SETTLED ACROSS THE CONUS EJECTS WELL TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVES TIED TO THE
SOUTHERN SUB-TROPICAL JET EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD ADVANCE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES. WITH THE MODEST
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AN UPTICK IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TOWARDS THE 75 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW, LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MAY SEE THE STRONGEST OF THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES, THAT
PROVIDES WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE (20-35%) THAN ISOLATED (10-20%)
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES
ENTERING MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN WILL TRY TO TRANSITION TOWARDS
RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUT SIGNS OF SOME GULF MOISTURE (PERHAPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE) MAY KEEP DAILY LOW END CHANCES IN
PLAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
CLIMB A BIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE LOCATIONS SEEING THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WARMER AS WELL WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD
INTO OUR TAF SITES, RESULTING IN IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 WITH MVFR OUT
WEST AT DRT. SOME MORNING FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG I-35 AND
WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE THIS MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING, LEAVING VFR
INTACT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 71 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 94 76 / 0 0 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...PLATT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page