312
FXUS64 KEWX 281742
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER THROUGH END OF WORKWEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN TRENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
25 TO 50 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONSHORE FLOW
REMAINS RATHER LIGHT AND HELPS TO KEEP DEW POINTS FROM NOT BECOMING
TOO OVERLY HUMID. HOWEVER, WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED
GROUNDS, SHALLOW PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP BOTH THIS MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. SKIES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND
STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT ADVANCES TOWARDS OR INTO
RURAL WEST-NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. NO RAIN WILL
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEASONABLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND MORNING LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE LOCAL RIDGING FLATTENS THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOWS MORE OF A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ASSOCIATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE
OMEGA BLOCK SETTLED ACROSS THE CONUS EJECTS WELL TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVES TIED TO THE
SOUTHERN SUB-TROPICAL JET EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD ADVANCE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES. WITH THE MODEST
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AN UPTICK IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TOWARDS THE 75 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW, LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MAY SEE THE STRONGEST OF THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES, THAT
PROVIDES WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE (20-35%) THAN ISOLATED (10-20%)
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES
ENTERING MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN WILL TRY TO TRANSITION TOWARDS
RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUT SIGNS OF SOME GULF MOISTURE (PERHAPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE) MAY KEEP DAILY LOW END CHANCES IN
PLAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
CLIMB A BIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE LOCATIONS SEEING THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WARMER AS WELL WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MVFR
CEILING WILL DEVELOP AT DRT LATE OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MOST
FRIDAY MORNING. WE ARE KEEPING THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF THESE CLOUDS DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BE IFR
HEIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 91 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 72 91 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...05
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