309
FXUS64 KEWX 291735
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIR WITH WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK, PEAKS MID TO LATE
WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE HEADING INTO TODAY BUT DOES NUDGE
EASTWARD SLIGHTLY BY THE WEEKEND. IT SHIFTS EAST JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BE IN PLACE ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITHIN THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED PIECES OF MID-LEVEL WIND ENERGY. THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
COMBINED WITH A WEST TEXAS DRYLINE HELPS INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND
IN WEST TEXAS AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ACTIVITY APPROACHING OR DURING EACH EVENING TO APPROACH
AND/OR BRIEFLY ENTER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. ELSEWHERE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR REGION, REMAINS RAIN
FREE WITH TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONTINUES UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. MORNING
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT THE SIGNAL FOR
FOG BECOMES WEAKER AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD)
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE
RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LOW- LEVEL SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. IT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RE-INTRODUCE SOME LOW END RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
PERSIST OR EVEN CLIMB THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE REGION LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN-BETWEEN A POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOW OFF AROUND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND BROAD TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT NO INDIVIDUAL DAY
CURRENTLY LOOKS ANY MORE FAVORED THAN THE REST. WE'LL FINE TUNE
THESE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
ALL TERMINALS HAVE REBOUNDED TO VFR AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND
LAST UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SITES
STAYING VFR, BUT WE DON'T SEE ANY CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
AND THIS LEADS US TO BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS BACK IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 92 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 92 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 72 91 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 91 73 91 / 0 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...05
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