109
FXUS64 KEWX 300558
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1258 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
- INCREASING MOISTURE ALLOWS FOR RETURNING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
NEXT WEEK, PEAKING MID TO LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW ALLOWED
FOR A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO DURING YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING ON THE APPROACH TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY
AND/OR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE BOTH
LATER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE SUPPLY PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME VIRGA OR EVEN A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES REACHING
THE SURFACE BUT ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN UNLIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION BUT I'LL
TREND A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO THE NBM OUTPUT GIVEN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OVERNIGHTS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES THAT
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURN EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE COMING OFF THE GULF WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BETWEEN AN AREA OF TROUGHING NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND A BROAD WEAKNESS ACROSS THE GULF. THE TROUGHING
AROUND BAJA OR AT LEAST PIECES THAT STRIP OFF FROM THIS TROUGH MAY
SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME AND PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING. OVERALL, WIND SHEAR
REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND THIS WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION RATHER
UNORGANIZED. THIS SUPPORTS MORE OF A SCATTERED POP-UP AND QUICKLY
COLLAPSE TYPE OF CONVECTIVE REGIME COMPARED TO SQUALL LINES AND
MESOSCALE COMPLEX REGIMES. AVERAGE QPF ACROSS THE REGION ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND ONE INCH OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A HUMID STRETCH WITH
SKIES TRENDING GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE DAYTIME
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHILE
OVERNIGHTS RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE I-35 SITES BEFORE TURNING INTO MVFR. KDRT MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO START AROUND 13Z SATURDAY. VFR CIGS RETURN TO ALL AREA
TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 74 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 74 95 76 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 89 74 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 90 74 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 73 90 75 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 90 75 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...17
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