405
FXUS64 KEWX 301744
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
- INCREASING MOISTURE ALLOWS FOR RETURNING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
NEXT WEEK, PEAKING MID TO LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW ALLOWED
FOR A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO DURING YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING ON THE APPROACH TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY
AND/OR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE BOTH
LATER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE SUPPLY PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME VIRGA OR EVEN A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES REACHING
THE SURFACE BUT ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN UNLIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION BUT I'LL
TREND A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO THE NBM OUTPUT GIVEN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OVERNIGHTS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES THAT
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURN EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE COMING OFF THE GULF WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BETWEEN AN AREA OF TROUGHING NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND A BROAD WEAKNESS ACROSS THE GULF. THE TROUGHING
AROUND BAJA OR AT LEAST PIECES THAT STRIP OFF FROM THIS TROUGH MAY
SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME AND PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING. OVERALL, WIND SHEAR
REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND THIS WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION RATHER
UNORGANIZED. THIS SUPPORTS MORE OF A SCATTERED POP-UP AND QUICKLY
COLLAPSE TYPE OF CONVECTIVE REGIME COMPARED TO SQUALL LINES AND
MESOSCALE COMPLEX REGIMES. AVERAGE QPF ACROSS THE REGION ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND ONE INCH OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A HUMID STRETCH WITH
SKIES TRENDING GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE DAYTIME
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHILE
OVERNIGHTS RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR ALL SITES
EXCEPT KAUS WHERE VFR CIGS REMAIN. CONTINUE TO SEE A RELATIVELY
THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED CLOUD DECK STREAMING IN OFF NORTHERN
MEXICO. THERE IS SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH THIS HOWEVER NOTHING
SEEMS TO BE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON OBS. ADDED TEMPOS FOR THE
FLUCTUATING CIGS UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BEFORE ANOTHER CLOUD DECK FORMS OVERNIGHT DROPPING CIGS
BACK TO MVFR WITH KDRT AND KAUS BEING THE EXCEPTION AND REMAINING
IN VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MORNING WITH INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS AS WELL FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
S TO SSE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 73 90 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 92 73 93 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 91 74 91 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...CJM
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