734
FXUS64 KEWX 130539
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY
- AN EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT TO BRING AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
- UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATER WITHIN THE WEEK REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS HEAT
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE DAILY DOSES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS, ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN AS EARLY
MORNING STREAMER ACTIVITY THAT MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH. ACTIVITY THEN
WOULD TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN ACTIVITY IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL FORCING COMING FROM
THE INLAND ADVANCING SEA BREEZE. AN OCCASIONAL CELL MAY BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS, AND A BRIEF HEAVIER TROPICAL LIKE DOWNPOUR. THE GREATEST
FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT. OTHERWISE, AREA ACTIVITY WOULD GENERALLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LULL EXTENDING INTO THE START
OF THE OVERNIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS MAINTAIN WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HIGHER HEAT INDICES. PEAK HEAT
INDICES RANGE INTO THE 100 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. MORNING LOWS WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO RANGE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (NEAR AND ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND A LATE SEASON FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO PEAK (50-80%) MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH AROUND A 50-70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1
INCH OF RAIN IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WE'LL MONITOR AS THE SIGNAL IS ENOUGH TO PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. WPC HIGHLIGHTS
THIS POTENTIAL BY ADDING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER A LEVEL 1 TO 2
OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH THE RAIN CHANCES, CLOUD
COVER, AND MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT'S
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID IN THE 70S.
MID TO LATE WEEK HOLDS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE
REGION, AND HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF ANY LINGERING VORTICITY
THAT COULD EXIST FROM THE COMBO OF THAT FRONT AND TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE RANGES
FROM THE VORTICITY DISSIPATING ACROSS MEXICO (THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A DRIER SOLUTION IN OUR REGION), TO LEFTOVER VORTICITY MEANDERING
IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING SOMEWHERE
TOWARDS THE NORTH, OR NORTHEAST (THIS MAY YIELD TO A SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL). FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
CONCENTRATING MORE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CHANCES RETURN AND BUMP UP SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ASPECT THAT WILL FEATURE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS HEAT. A 700 MB
THERMAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS STARTS TO PIVOT
EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. PENDING THE EVOLUTION ON HOW THE PIECES EVOLVE IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH, IF A LESS RAINY SOLUTION DOES PLAY OUT FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK, THEN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION COULD
RAISE TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MANY.
WHEN ADDING IN THE ELEVATED DEW POINTS, THE HEAT INDICES COULD
NEAR OR PERHAPS EVEN ECLIPSE 110 DEGREES FOR SOME AREAS. AS A
RESULT, THIS COULD REQUIRE THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF HEAT PRODUCTS ON
THE YEAR. IT IS A GOOD REMINDER TO PRACTICE AND PROMOTE HEAT
SAFETY!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA POTENTIAL AT AUS, SAT,
AND SSF 17Z-23Z TODAY. SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TODAY
AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KTS. DRT SHOULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP A BIT LATER THAN THE OTHER SITES, AROUND 09Z BEFORE
BREAKING UP TO VFR BY 17Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 77 93 75 / 20 0 50 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 78 93 75 / 20 0 50 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 91 72 / 0 0 30 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 78 97 76 / 0 0 0 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 93 77 92 73 / 10 0 40 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 91 74 / 10 10 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 92 75 / 20 10 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 77 91 76 / 20 0 80 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 77 91 76 / 20 10 50 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 77 91 75 / 20 10 50 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
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