128
FXUS64 KEWX 131040
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
- AN EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT TO BRING AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
- UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND/OR
DANGEROUS HEAT MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WE SHOULD SEE STREAMER SHOWERS FORM EARLY IN
THE MORNING AND CONTINUE TRAVERSING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF DUE TO
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OR MORE IN ANY
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ONCE WE GET SOME HEATING DURING THE DAY WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AS WE REMAIN IN A TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. REGARDING HEAT MOST SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, ADD IN THE HUMIDITY AND THE
"FEELS LIKE" OR HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MORE IN THE 100
TO 106 DEGREE RANGE TOMORROW. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY WE COULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME HOWEVER WE COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE GULF AND
ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ANY STREAMER SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN ANY OF THE
HEAVIER CELLS. SIMILARLY EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EITHER NORTHERN MEXICO OR THE
SOUTHERN TX COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE EXACT
DETAILS WITH TWO SOLUTIONS POSSIBLE. THE FIRST BEING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE AND THE ITS VORTICITY MOVES NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH WOULD GIVES US A MORE
DRIER SOLUTION ACROSS OUR AREA THUS REDUCING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD
AND EMERGES ALONG WITH ITS VORTICITY AND BECOMES TRAPPED IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS OUR AREA AND SOUTHERN TX. THE SECOND SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO A
HIGHER SIGNAL OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. DECIDED TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH MEDIUM CHANCE POPS (30-60%) STAYING IN THE FORECAST AS THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION.
ADDITIONALLY, A LATE SEASON FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SOMETIME MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WE COULD SEE A RISK FOR INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AS ANY
OF THE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AS
SUCH, WPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AS DO SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH WPC AGAIN
KEEPING OUR AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN A LEVEL 1 OF
4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS ITS POSSIBLE THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE MAY REMAIN JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR AREA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP A BIT BACK INTO THE
80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS RATHER THICK DUE TO
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY AS THE FRONT PASSES WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST HELPING TO TAME TEMPS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. BEYOND TUESDAY
THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO AND ITS REMNANTS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
IF WE CONTINUE SEEING MORE RAINFALL OR A DRIER SOLUTION LEADING TO
MORE HEAT ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE DIRER SOLUTION WERE TO HAPPEN WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE AREA. ADD IN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION AND
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDICES NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE 110 DEGREES!
THIS WOULD CERTAINLY WARRANT A ISSUING HEAT PRODUCTS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH SOLUTION
WINS OUT THIS IN TURN WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF FORECAST HAPPENS
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED AND CHECK BACK TO THE FORECAST
OFTEN AND DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE REGARDING THESE SCENARIOS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT AREA TERMINALS AS
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY 17Z ALONG WITH A SHOT AT
TSRA AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF WITH A PROB30 USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
CHANCE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT
10-15 KTS WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST UP AND OVER 20 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 77 93 75 / 20 0 50 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 78 93 75 / 20 0 50 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 91 72 / 0 0 30 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 78 97 76 / 0 0 0 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 93 77 92 73 / 10 0 40 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 91 74 / 10 10 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 92 75 / 20 10 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 77 91 76 / 20 0 80 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 77 91 76 / 20 10 50 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 77 91 75 / 20 10 50 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...MMM
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