620
FXUS64 KEWX 141127
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
- MONITORING ANY LINGERING SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD CONTINUE
OUR RAIN CHANCES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDICES
THIS WEEKEND AND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
HAVE PUSHED UP THE TIMING REGARDING THE ONSET OF POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WE COULD SEE STREAMER SHOWERS FORM EARLY IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE
TRAVERSING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF DUE TO THE INCREASED ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE ENTERING INTO THE AREA. RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WE COULD SEE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. DUE IN
PART TO THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
INLAND INTO MEXICO. AS SUCH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A
QUICK INCH OR MORE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE WE GET
SOME HEATING DURING THE DAY WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD LIKELY CONTAIN EVEN HEAVIER
RAINFALL AS PWATS WILL LIKELY APPROACH IF NOT BE IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE (BETWEEN 2.20 AND POSSIBLE OVER 2.50 INCHES).
ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS WE REMAIN IN A TROPICAL LIKE
ENVIRONMENT. UNSURPRISINGLY WPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A LEVEL 1
OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. UNLIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WE COULD
SEE ACTIVITY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN
PLACE IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH FORCING TO SPARK MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TREKKING SOUTHWARD WE WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAMATICALLY INCREASE WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEING THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH
WPC HAS MOST OUR AREA IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH OUR WESTERN AREAS IN A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RRFS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 5 INCHES
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WHEREVER THIS FRONT ENDS UP THROUGH THE
DAY WILL DETERMINE WHICH AREAS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN.
SIMILARLY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE QUITE
SLOW LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. AS SUCH, A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING 100 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE. MONDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS DROP A BIT WITH MID TO UPPER
80S MORE LIKELY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE WARM
AND DOWNRIGHT MUGGY FOR MANY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH MOST RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES SLIDING FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS
OVER MEXICO AND WHERE ITS REMAINS EVENTUALLY END UP. IF IT TRACKS
CLOSER TO OUR AREA RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE
WHEREAS A TRACK MORE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE TX COAST WOULD KEEP
CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED OVER OUR COASTAL PLAINS AREAS. BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON A TRACK WITH THE GFS BEING FURTHER
INLAND THEN THE EURO AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST WHAT SOLUTION WE
END UP WITH.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS EVEN FURTHER, SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL TEXAS
SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY INTO THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE SOILS AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS
ACROSS THE REGION AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS
THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER US.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP A BIT BACK INTO THE
80S TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS RATHER THICK DUE TO THE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY AS
THE FRONT PASSES WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTHEAST HELPING
TO TAME TEMPS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD WARM UP AGAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE HUMID AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUS THE PROSPECTS
FOR HEAT PRODUCTS HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD AS MORE DISTURBANCE LOOK TO
IMPACT OUR AREA AND THE RIDGE THAT WAS LIKELY TO BUILD LOOKS WEAKER.
IT WILL STILL FEEL VERY WARM HOWEVER AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STICKS
AROUND. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WE COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDICES
ANYWHERE FROM 100 TO 109 DEGREES. REMEMBER TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE
SAFE HEAT SAFETY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THINGS REMAIN ON
TRACK. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 AT SSF TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE,
STATUS QUO FOR THIS FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 76 86 74 / 40 70 80 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 76 86 74 / 40 70 80 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 86 73 / 40 60 80 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 82 72 / 40 70 80 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 97 76 89 74 / 0 60 80 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 84 72 / 40 80 80 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 86 73 / 30 70 70 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 76 86 73 / 40 60 80 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 77 86 75 / 50 50 90 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 77 86 74 / 40 60 70 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 76 86 74 / 40 60 70 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...MMM
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