203
FXUS64 KEWX 141755
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AT TIMES.
- MONITORING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND ANY FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG
COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LEFTOVER SPIN FROM THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
- ELEVATED HEAT INDICES TODAY AND LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER
MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOW AROUND 2 INCHES FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE INTO THE 2.25 TO 2.4 INCH (AT THE 99+ PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) RANGE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD FEATURE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVIER DOWNPOURS PRODUCING AROUND A QUICK
HALF INCH OR MORE. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THEN INCREASES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION AND ACTS AS AN ADDITIONAL CATALYST FOR ACTIVITY. THIS
FRONT SLOWS AND STARTS TO STALL OUT NEAR OR WITHIN THE REGION. OUR
MAIN CONCERN AND THE REASON FOR THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLOOD WATCH IS
WHERE THE MESOSCALE BANDING OF HEAVIER STORMS DEVELOP WITH HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES (2-3+ INCH PER HOUR) AND WHERE THESE STORMS COULD
MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY. REGIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH LIKELY ISOLATED
POCKETS OR NARROW REGIONS WITH 8+ INCHES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST 12Z HREF AND REFS LPMM GUIDANCE. FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH
RESPONSES IN AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS FROM RUNOFF WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THOSE BULLSEYES OF HIGHER TOTALS. AVOID LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND THE
AREA RAINFALL. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, THE WINDS WOULD TURN TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR A TIME WHILE THE LOCATIONS THAT PRIMARILY
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE AREAS
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THESE RAIN CHANCES HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER SPIN IN
THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE DISTURBANCE MEANDERING
ACROSS MEXICO, WHICH THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME,
GENERALLY PARALLELING NEAR OR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AS THE RAINFALL GRADIENT COULD
BECOME QUITE TIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN REGION, BETWEEN AREAS
WITH NO TO LITTLE RAINFALL AND HEAVIER TOTALS. IF THAT MID-LEVEL
SPIN ADVANCES FARTHER INLAND THAN FORECAST, THEN THE RAIN CHANCES
WOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST WITHIN OUR REGION WITH
GREATER CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
RISK. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, THE DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES REBOUND WITH RETURNING OF ELEVATED TO
HAZARDOUS HEAT INDICES. OVERNIGHTS STAY VERY WARM AND HUMID.
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION ONCE MORE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SAN ANGELO AND BIG
COUNTRY REGION. SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, HEAT
INDICES COULD STILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE REGIONWIDE THROUGH
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
PRECISE TIMING AT TERMINALS IS LOW BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE HIGH.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF AREAL LOW
CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL PROB30 OR TEMPO FOR
TSRA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW IN LATER TAFS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW, BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND PREVAILING WIND OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 8 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 84 74 87 / 70 80 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 84 74 86 / 70 80 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 84 73 85 / 70 80 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 82 71 86 / 80 70 30 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 88 74 91 / 70 80 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 82 73 86 / 80 80 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 85 73 86 / 80 80 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 84 73 85 / 60 80 50 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 85 75 85 / 50 80 60 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 85 74 86 / 70 90 60 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 86 74 85 / 60 90 70 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...TRAN
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