619
FXUS64 KEWX 151152
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
EXPECTED AT TIMES.
- MONITORING ANY LINGERING SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD CONTINUE
OUR RAIN CHANCES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDICES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TREKKING SOUTHWARD WE WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD
OF IT. EVENTUALLY THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE EITHER JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION OR WITHIN IT. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE AND WHEN IT STALLS OUT. WHEREVER IT DOES, WE COULD SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG IT AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE DISTURBANCE NOW LOCATED IN MEXICO CREEPS CLOSER.
CURRENTLY PWATS ARE IN THE 2 TO 2.4IN RANGE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA
SO THE MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN TAP
INTO THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WITH 2-3 INCH RATES PER HOUR BEING POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
AND RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE PRESENT WE COULD SEE SOME HEFTY RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS STEERING FOR STORMS
WILL BE VERY WEAK LEADING TO POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. HENCE WE
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FEW WEEKS. ADDITIONALLY, WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WITH SOME AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVING UP TO AND ABOVE 8 INCHES. FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH RESPONSES IN AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS FROM RUNOFF WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF ANY OF THOSE BULLSEYES OF HIGHER
TOTALS. AVOID LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL WITH RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO SHOW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA(EVERY MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION) EVENTUALLY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS DROP A BIT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MORE
LIKELY AND HEAT INDICES NEAR THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 IN ANY OF THE
AREAS WHERE SOME SUN BREAKS OUT. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE WARM AND DOWNRIGHT MUGGY FOR MANY. TUESDAY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DEPENDING ON IF WE SEE MORE PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WITH MOST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SLIDING FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE TX COAST. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS AS LEFTOVER
SPIN IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY MEANDERING ACROSS MEXICO SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.
HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND WHERE ITS REMAINS EVENTUALLY END UP DURING
MIDWEEK. IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO OUR AREA RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WOULD LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WHEREAS A
TRACK MORE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE TX COAST WOULD KEEP CHANCES MAINLY
CONFINED OVER OUR COASTAL PLAINS AREAS. IF THE MORE INLAND SCENARIO
PLAYS OUT THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT DUE TO RECENT
SATURATION OVER THE PRIOR DAYS. HOWEVER, IF THE TRACK IS MORE ALONG
THE COAST THEN WE WOULD NEED TO FOCUS MORE ON HAZARDOUS HEAT WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDICES LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR
AREA.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS EVEN FURTHER, SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS CENTRAL TEXAS SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY INTO THE SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE SOILS AND INCREASE
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION AS MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER US.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD WARM UP AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE HUMID AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR HEAT REMAINS ALBEIT TRENDING DOWNWARD AS MORE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO IMPACT OUR AREA. IT WILL STILL FEEL VERY WARM
HOWEVER AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STICKS AROUND. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S WE COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDICES ANYWHERE FROM 100 TO 109
DEGREES. REMEMBER TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE SAFE HEAT SAFETY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. HEAVY RAINFALL,
REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT TIMES AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 74 87 74 / 70 30 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 74 86 74 / 80 30 50 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 73 85 73 / 80 40 50 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 71 86 72 / 60 20 30 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 73 91 74 / 60 20 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 72 86 73 / 60 30 50 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 72 86 72 / 80 40 40 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 73 85 73 / 80 40 50 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 74 84 74 / 90 60 60 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 74 85 74 / 80 40 50 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 74 85 74 / 80 50 50 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17
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