045
FXUS64 KEWX 160005
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AT TIMES.
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDICES
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINATION IS
FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN MID MORNING TO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS
CANCELED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS, AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS THE PROJECTED HEAVY RAINFALL IS TO FALL TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. WITH RAIN RATES OF 2 TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL TAKE A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND
AWAY FROM POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUESDAY, HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND THE COASTAL PLAINS LIKELY KEEP
THE HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN THOSE AREAS. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFE THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA
CONTINUES. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS PUSH TO THE EAST TEXAS COAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
AREA WITH DRY AIRMASS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SETUP
BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S AND EVEN 100-104 DEGREES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS COULD GET A SHOWER OR TWO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES DO RETURN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS INTO OUR AREA AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION, BUT THEY ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME IN TUESDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 86 74 91 / 50 60 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 85 74 90 / 50 70 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 84 72 90 / 60 80 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 72 90 / 30 40 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 91 74 96 / 30 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 85 72 90 / 40 50 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 85 71 90 / 60 50 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 84 73 90 / 60 80 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 83 74 88 / 70 80 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 85 73 90 / 60 60 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 84 73 90 / 70 70 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ193-194-207>209-
217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05
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